Pretražite po imenu i prezimenu autora, mentora, urednika, prevoditelja

Napredna pretraga

Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 360087

Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia


Dumičić, Ksenija; Čeh Časni, Anita; Gogala, Zdenka
Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia // Proceedings of the 4th Internationa Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship (CD) ; Cavtat, Croatia, 11-14.06.2008. ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb / Galetić, Lovorka ; Čavlek, Nevenka (ur.).
Zagreb, 2008. str. 1726-1743 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)


CROSBI ID: 360087 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia

Autori
Dumičić, Ksenija ; Čeh Časni, Anita ; Gogala, Zdenka

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 4th Internationa Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship (CD) ; Cavtat, Croatia, 11-14.06.2008. ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb / Galetić, Lovorka ; Čavlek, Nevenka - Zagreb, 2008, 1726-1743

ISBN
953-6025-24-8

Skup
International Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship (4 ; 2008)

Mjesto i datum
Cavtat, Hrvatska, 11.06.2008. - 14.06.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Keywords: tourism time series; Holt's exponentially smoothed and trend adjusted forecasting model; linear trend forecasting model; MSE; MAD.

Sažetak
In Croatian economy in which a significant part of revenues are due to tourism, it is interesting for policymakers to create good forecasts of tourism supply and demand components. In this paper the dynamics of three time series in Croatian tourism were considered, annual data for beds, arrivals and nights for total number of tourists in Croatia, both domestic and foreign. A very detailed statistical analysis was done for the period 1996-2006. Various Holt’ s two-parameter exponential smoothing and trend adjusted forecast models and the linear regression trend model were applied. Assuming some underlying stability in the system exists, the authors did short-medium term forecasts for the two years time horizons, up to 2008. The two exponential smoothing constants and for the Holt’ s model applied were varying, so, four models were fitted. The accuracy of forecasts was examined based on Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error. For all three time series the Holt’ s methods showed to be less efficient than the linear trend forecasting with all three accuracy indicators of much higher values than for the linear extrapolation.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
Sažetak rada tiskan je posebno u: The 4th International Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship Proceedings ; p. 263-264. Citiran je u znanstvenim bazama: EconLit, ProQuest



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekti:
067-0161711-2483 - Statističko modeliranje za povećanje konkurentnosti suvremenih organizacija (Dumičić, Ksenija, MZOS ) ( CroRIS)

Ustanove:
Ekonomski fakultet, Zagreb

Profili:

Avatar Url Anita Čeh Časni (autor)

Avatar Url Ksenija Dumičić (autor)

Avatar Url Zdenka Gogala (autor)


Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

Dumičić, Ksenija; Čeh Časni, Anita; Gogala, Zdenka
Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia // Proceedings of the 4th Internationa Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship (CD) ; Cavtat, Croatia, 11-14.06.2008. ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb / Galetić, Lovorka ; Čavlek, Nevenka (ur.).
Zagreb, 2008. str. 1726-1743 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
Dumičić, K., Čeh Časni, A. & Gogala, Z. (2008) Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia. U: Galetić, L. & Čavlek, N. (ur.)Proceedings of the 4th Internationa Conference An Enterprise Odyssey : Tourism – Governance and Enterpreneurship (CD) ; Cavtat, Croatia, 11-14.06.2008. ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
@article{article, author = {Dumi\v{c}i\'{c}, Ksenija and \v{C}eh \v{C}asni, Anita and Gogala, Zdenka}, year = {2008}, pages = {1726-1743}, keywords = {Keywords: tourism time series, Holt's exponentially smoothed and trend adjusted forecasting model, linear trend forecasting model, MSE, MAD.}, isbn = {953-6025-24-8}, title = {Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia}, keyword = {Keywords: tourism time series, Holt's exponentially smoothed and trend adjusted forecasting model, linear trend forecasting model, MSE, MAD.}, publisherplace = {Cavtat, Hrvatska} }
@article{article, author = {Dumi\v{c}i\'{c}, Ksenija and \v{C}eh \v{C}asni, Anita and Gogala, Zdenka}, year = {2008}, pages = {1726-1743}, keywords = {Keywords: tourism time series, Holt's exponentially smoothed and trend adjusted forecasting model, linear trend forecasting model, MSE, MAD.}, isbn = {953-6025-24-8}, title = {Evaluating Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing and Linear Trend Forecasting of Basic Tourism Time Series in Croatia}, keyword = {Keywords: tourism time series, Holt's exponentially smoothed and trend adjusted forecasting model, linear trend forecasting model, MSE, MAD.}, publisherplace = {Cavtat, Hrvatska} }




Contrast
Increase Font
Decrease Font
Dyslexic Font