Naslov
Operational oceanography in the coastal region using multi-model super-ensembles

Autori
Rixen, M. ; Carta, A. ; Grandi, V. ; Gualdesi, L. ; Ranelli, P. ; Book, J. ; Martin, P. ; Preller, R. ; Oddo, P. ; Pinardi, N. ; Guarnieri, A ; Chiggiato, J. ; Carniel, S. ; Russo, Aleksandar ; Orlić, Mirko ; Tudor, Martina ; Vandenbulcke, L. ; Lenartz, F. ; DART consortium

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Abstracts of the EGU General Assembly 2008 ; u: Geophysical Research Abstracts 10 (2008) / - , 2008

Skup
EGU General Assembly 2008

Mjesto i datum
Beč, Austrija, 13.04.2008. - 18.04.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
operational oceanography; coastal region

Sažetak
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aiming at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state - of - the - art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR [a trawlresistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time] data and a series of eight operational models ran during an experiment in a coastal area in the Adriatic Sea. Kalman filter and Particle filter based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non Gaussian error statistics and reduces the uncertainty by a further 30%.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA