Naslov
Analiza osjetljivost modela za procjenu srednjeg vremena boravka morske vode u Jadranskom moru zasnovanom na 90Sr kao radioaktivnom obilježivaču
(Sensitivity Analysis of the Model for Estimation of the Adriatic Ses Water Turnover Time using Fallout 90Sr as a Radioactive Tracer)

Autori
Franić, Zdenko

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Zbornik radova 6. simpozija Hrvatskog društva za zaštitu od zračenja = Proceedings of the Sixth Symposium of the Croatian Radiation Protection Association / Garaj-Vrhovac, Verica ; Kopjar, Nevenka ; Miljanić, Saveta - Zagreb : Hrvatsko društvo za zaštitu od zračenja, 2005, 373-378

Skup
Simpozij Hrvatskog društva za zaštitu od zračenja s međunarodnim sudjelovanjem (6 ; 2005)

Mjesto i datum
Stubičke Toplice, Hrvatska, 18.04.2005. - 20.04.2005

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Sažetak
Reliable data on the turnover time of the water in the Adriatic Sea (approximately 35000 km3) is extremely important for any risk analysis involving various economic activities, tourism etc. The water exchange through the Strait of Otranto between the Adriatic and the Ionian seas has been the subject of a series of experimental investigations and more recently also of some numerical studies, which is extensively presented by Cushman- Roisin et al. [1]. From the data on water fluxes through the Strait can be easily calculated the turnover time of the Adriatic sea water by calculating the annual water mass flowing through the Strait and dividing it by the total volume of the Adriatic sea. The literature data on the Adriatic Sea water turnover time range from minimal 0.7 to maximal 5.0 years. Using the model describing the rate of change of 90Sr activity concentrations in the Adriatic Sea water [3] by function minimisation to long term experimental data, the turnover time for 90Sr in the Adriatic was calculated to be 3.3 ± 0.4 years. The uncertainty was estimated by Monte Carlo analysis. As 90Sr is reliable radioatracer for seawater, this value also reflects the sea water turnover time as well. Applying sensitivity analysis for the model by varying critical parameters over their nominal values was found that ± 25% uncertainty in estimation of the Adriatic sea water activity causes approximately -10% and +10% change in 90Sr mean residence time. On the other hand, the larger input of 90Sr, either by fallout or by water influx from the Ionian Sea, leads to smaller value for mean residence time. As a consequence of direct proportionality between 90Sr input into the Adriatic sea and its mean residence time in the sea water, it can be argued that 3.3 is the upper limit of the Adriatic sea water turnover time. Namely, resuspension from the sediments could affect 90Sr activity concentrations, acting as additional input, especially in the northern, relatively shallow part of the Adriatic.

Izvorni jezik
Hrvatski, engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA