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The acceptable probability determines the degree of conservatism for the initial design prior to construction. The higher the chosen probability, the more conservative will be the initial design. The lower bound of acceptable probability corresponds to the design based on characteristic values from Eurocode 7 (a cautious estimate of ground conditions).ZZ d7 & continued  HEurocode 7 implicitly requires a margin of conservatism for the design based on characteristic values, because the actual behaviour may step outside acceptable limits. If this happens, there should be provisions for the application of planned contingency actions. The required margin of conservatism is, however, not specified. 6 How conservative should one be?`Peck (1969) lists eight ingredients of the complete application of the observational method, and one of them is:  (c) establishment of the design based on a working hypothesis of behaviour anticipated under the most probable conditions. (Which should correspond to characteristic values of Eurocode 7).8& continued  lPowderham (1994) supports a moderately conservative initial design based on more probable conditions and introduces the progressive modification of design through the application of the observational method, which proved to be a very efficient approach. Muir Wood (2000) suggests a conservative initial design for tunnels based on a simplified economical analysis.6Initial design: constant probability (Muir Wood 2000)D    {& continued     $Probability distribution (Muir Wood)$ #Triangular probability distribution $ &Initial design: triangular probability   2 Construction cost  G8Minimal cost and optimal probability for adequate design3 &Optimal probability of adequate design& J ConclusionsEurocode 7 provides no guidance for the selection of the acceptable probability on which to base the initial design when using the observational method. Many agree that the initial design should be more conservative than the Peck proposal based on most probable conditions. The optimal degree of conservatism for the initial design depends on the relative cost of contingency actions (k). This may be the way to acceptable probability. K References(Eurocode 7 (1995). ENV1997-1 Eurocode 7, Geotechnical design, Part 1: General rules (together with the United Kingdom National Application Document). British Standards Institution, London. Muir Wood, A. (2000). Tunnelling: Management by design. E & FN Spon, London. Peck, R. B. (1969). Advantages and limitations of the Observational Method in applied soil mechanics. Gotechnique, 44 (4), 619-636. Powderham, A. J. (1994). An overview of the observational method: development in cut and cover bored tunnelling projects. 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F  Triangular (this study)(   @`   N$ ?? p  T  @`  Nt ??Fp   T  @`  N ?? pF  uConstant Muir Wood (2000)   @`  N춐 ?? `p qContingency actions   @`  N`Ő ??F` p lInitial design   @`  NƐ ?? `Fp  Probability distribution     @`~B   No ?? ``xB  H1 ??   ~B  No ?? ~B  No ?? ` xB  H1 ??F`FxB  H1 ?? ` ~B  No ??`~B  No ?? pp  ZA U? ?? - U  ZA X? ??@P" X`  c $A V??` @ 4  V`  c $A X??g  X`  c $A L?? p L`  c $A N?? 0  N` T c $A Y??` s Y` U c $A \??ws \H  0޽h ? ffD3fS     /  (   x   c $ՐAX    f  H /  #" H   HLِ ??$ 0 H T  @`    Nh ?? 0 $ H ?Solution for both the constant and the triangular distribution@@ @`   N ??$ 0  T  @`   N ?? $ 0  _ Minimal cost   @`   N$ ??$  T  @`   N\  ?? $  \Total estimated cost @`~B   No ?? xB   H1 ?? xB   H1 ?? 0 0 ~B   No ?? HH~B   No ??  HxB   H1 ??$ $ H~B   No ??H`   c $A P?? @ P`   c $A R?? K"  R`   c $A T??`   T  ,  T  ??N`} +(k : relative cost of contingency actions) >,(H   0޽h ? ffD3f  80 (  r  S AXp   f   s *A ?? ` P    # l||==A ??? 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continued How conservative should one be? continued7Initial design: constant probability (Muir Wood 2000) continued%Probability distribution (Muir Wood)$Triangular probability distribution'Initial design: triangular probabilityConstruction cost9Minimal cost and optimal probability for adequate design'Optimal probability of adequate design Conclusions References  Fonts UsedDesign TemplateEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titles@"Verdana@ Sw\w,_Antun Szavits-NossanAntun Szavits-Nossan2003     .&Gy&  .%2 University of Zagreb       .&y&  . 2 c1 . i  IPlot Document  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0*KPlot Document  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0N9LPlot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0P:MPlot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0U=NEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0X>OEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0V?PEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0V@QEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0XASEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0LBTEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0NCUEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0PDVEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0REWEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0HXEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 4.0 Equation0TMYEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0Jz`Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0YaEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0\bEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document09*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0,*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document/ 00DTimes New Roman=|dv 0|( 0DArialNew Roman=|dv 0|( 0" DVerdanaw Roman=|dv 0|( 0"0DWingdingsRoman=|dv 0|( 0 a.  @n?" dd@  @@``   dY('   '' #& V  0 FH/2$;f2|.t#2$y]B B]ݨsH$#2$+좝]"CءZ,:#2$ϓ G55f#2$0:AJrt?{#2$d/zڗf<3#2$g "e6TA8={5#2$"猺:q8#2$vDE_Y1…_uo;#2$-S ѳ &>#2$^i A:d#2$zA>D-pGU=f#2$MӑSwbG8h28i#2$,tk4|bInk#2$w" <'.Rn#2$5h# 0e0e A@A5%8c8c     ?1d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'p@A)BCD|E?@8$ g4CdCdv 0pRppp@ <4!d!d` 0,>g4?d?dv 0p3pFp# <4BdBd` 0,>uʚ;2Nʚ;<4dddd{ 02*___PPT9 z?h-$Prague 24 Aug 2003 (University of ZagrebO =m #Observational Method and Eurocode 7,$000$  2Antun Szavits-Nossan University of Zagreb, Croatia33"0   )Observational Method in Eurocode 7 (1995) * Acceptable limits of behaviour shall be established before construction commences; It shall be shown that there is an acceptable probability that the actual behaviour will be within these limits; & A plan of contingency actions shall be devised which can be adopted should the monitoring reveal behaviour outside these limits.5 $What is the acceptable probability ?2  Eurocode 7 does not refer to acceptable probability any further. The acceptable probability determines the degree of conservatism for the initial design prior to construction. The higher the chosen probability, the more conservative will be the initial design. The lower bound of acceptable probability corresponds to the design based on characteristic values from Eurocode 7 (a cautious estimate of ground conditions).ZZ d7 & continued  HEurocode 7 implicitly requires a margin of conservatism for the design based on characteristic values, because the actual behaviour may step outside acceptable limits. If this happens, there should be provisions for the application of planned contingency actions. The required margin of conservatism is, however, not specified. 6 How conservative should one be?`Peck (1969) lists eight ingredients of the complete application of the observational method, and one of them is:  (c) establishment of the design based on a working hypothesis of behaviour anticipated under the most probable conditions. (Which should correspond to characteristic values of Eurocode 7).8& continued  lPowderham (1994) supports a moderately conservative initial design based on more probable conditions and introduces the progressive  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234567U9:<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOTVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)afhPicturesgCurrent User@\SummaryInformation($ PowerPoint Document(S4DocumentSummaryInformation8-IPlot Document  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0*KPlot Document  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0N9LPlot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0P:MPlot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0U=NEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0X>OEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0V?PEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0V@QEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0XASEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0LBTEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0NCUEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0PDVEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0REWEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0HXEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 4.0 Equation0TMYEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0Jz`Equation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0YaEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0\bEquation Equation.DSMT40*MathType 5.0 Equation0*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document09*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0,*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document0*Plot  Grapher.Document0*Grapher Plot Document/ 00DTimes New Roman=|dv 0|( 0DArialNew Roman=|dv 0|( 0" DVerdanaw Roman=|dv 0|( 0"0DWingdingsRoman=|dv 0|( 0 a.  @n?" dd@  @@``   dX('   '' #& V  0 FH/2$;f2|.t#2$y]B B]ݨsH$#2$+좝]"CءZ,:#2$ϓ G55f#2$0:AJrt?{#2$d/zڗf<3#2$g "e6TA8={5#2$"猺:q8#2$vDE_Y1…_uo;#2$-S ѳ &>#2$^i A:d#2$zA>D-pGU=f#2$MӑSwbG8h28i#2$,tk4|bInk#2$w" <'.Rn#2$5h# 0e0e A@A5%8c8c     ?1d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'p@A)BCD|E?@8$ g4CdCdv 0pRppp@ <4!d!d` 0,>g4?d?dv 0p3pFp# <4BdBd` 0,>uʚ;2Nʚ;<4dddd{ 02*___PPT9 z?h-$Prague 24 Aug 2003 (University of ZagrebO =m #Observational Method and Eurocode 7,$000$  2Antun Szavits-Nossan University of Zagreb, Croatia33"0   )Observational Method in Eurocode 7 (1995) * Acceptable limits of behaviour shall be established before construction commences; It shall be shown that there is an acceptable probability that the actual behaviour will be within these limits; & A plan of contingency actions shall be devised which can be adopted should the monitoring reveal behaviour outside these limits.5 $What is the acceptable probability ?2  Eurocode 7 does not refer to acceptable probability any further. The acceptable probability determines the degree of conservatism for the initial design prior to construction. The higher the chosen probability, the more conservative will be the initial design. The lower bound of acceptable probability corresponds to the design based on characteristic values from Eurocode 7 (a cautious estimate of ground conditions).ZZ d7 & continued  HEurocode 7 implicitly requires a margin of conservatism for the design based on characteristic values, because the actual behaviour may step outside acceptable limits. If this happens, there should be provisions for the application of planned contingency actions. The required margin of conservatism is, however, not specified. 6 How conservative should one be?`Peck (1969) lists eight ingredients of the complete application of the observational method, and one of them is:  (c) establishment of the design based on a working hypothesis of behaviour anticipated under the most probable conditions. (Which should correspond to characteristic values of Eurocode 7).8& continued  lPowderham (1994) supports a moderately conservative initial design based on more probable conditions and introduces the progressive modification of design through the application of the observational method, which proved to be a very efficient approach. Muir Wood (2000) suggests a conservative initial design for tunnels based on a simplified economical analysis.6Initial design: constant probability (Muir Wood 2000)D    {& continued     $Probability distribution (Muir Wood)$ #Triangular probability distribution $ &Initial design: triangular probability   2 Construction cost  G8Minimal cost and optimal probability for adequate design3 &Optimal probability of adequate design& J ConclusionsEurocode 7 provides no guidance for the selection of the acceptable probability on which to base the initial design when using the observational method. Many agree that the initial design should be more conservative than the Peck proposal based on most probable conditions. The optimal degree of conservatism for the initial design depends on the relative cost of contingency actions (k). This may be the way to acceptable probability. K References(Eurocode 7 (1995). ENV1997-1 Eurocode 7, Geotechnical design, Part 1: General rules (together with the United Kingdom National Application Document). British Standards Institution, London. Muir Wood, A. (2000). Tunnelling: Management by design. E & FN Spon, London. Peck, R. B. (1969). Advantages and limitations of the Observational Method in applied soil mechanics. Gotechnique, 44 (4), 619-636. Powderham, A. J. (1994). An overview of the observational method: development in cut and cover bored tunnelling projects. 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Muir Wood (2000) suggests a conservative initial design for tunnels based on a simplified economical analysis.6Initial design: constant probability (Muir Wood 2000)D    {& continued     $Probability distribution (Muir Wood)$ #Triangular probability distribution $ &Initial design: triangular probability   2 Construction cost  G8Minimal cost and optimal probability for adequate design3 &Optimal probability of adequate design& J ConclusionsEurocode 7 provides no guidance for the selection of the acceptable probability on which to base the initial design when using the observational method. Many agree that the initial design should be more conservative than the Peck proposal based on most probable conditions. The optimal degree of conservatism for the initial design depends on the relative cost of contingency actions (k). This may be the way to acceptable probability. K References(Eurocode 7 (1995). ENV1997-1 Eurocode 7, Geotechnical design, Part 1: General rules (together with the United Kingdom National Application Document). British Standards Institution, London. Muir Wood, A. (2000). Tunnelling: Management by design. E & FN Spon, London. Peck, R. B. (1969). Advantages and limitations of the Observational Method in applied soil mechanics. Gotechnique, 44 (4), 619-636. Powderham, A. J. (1994). An overview of the observational method: development in cut and cover bored tunnelling projects. Gotechnique, 19 (2), 171-187.)Z)0q    /8R|0 `p(  p p 0,#     T*   p 0h'  G  V*  d p c $ ?>Gr  p 0 $ = N  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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