ࡱ> _`^ܥhW epkch ĴĴĴĴĴ д"Ĵ>Y7999?xL X>7<>7l,2г7Landslide hazard in the Medvednica submountain area under dynamic conditions V. Jurak Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of Zagreb, Croatia Matkovi Civil Engineering Institute of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia . Miklin Institute of Geology, Zagreb, Croatia D. Cvijanovi Jabukovac 5. Zagreb, Croatia ABSTRACT: In the Zagreb wider area the Medvednica submountain area is considered as a separate geotechnical macro-zone distinguished by a considerable density of unstable slopes and landslides. The mentioned zone is a densely constructed residential area. The respective zone is affected by the known hypocentre in the Medvednica massif in which the earthquakes with a magnitude M > 5,5 may be expected. In the last hundred years there were three strong earthquakes generated in the mentioned massif. The expected response of the slope to the seismic excitation defined by the adopted dynamic parameters can be reflected in two ways: - either as a total failure of the slope previously affected by slow sliding; - or as initial deformations of the slope. Both of these two ways open the access for other factors, meteorological and anthropogenic in particular. The gradation of these results is likely to point out to the necessity of slope instability zoning. 1 INTRODUCTION The elements of geotechnical hazard in the densely populated submountain zone (Fig. 1) are unstable slopes and landslides on the one hand and strong earthquakes from the registered epicentral area on the other hand. Concerning seismic activity there is one epicentral area which is particularly significant being at a distance of only 16 km from the city centre - area source Kaina. The city area is also affected by the fault zone of the umberak - Medvednica - Kalnik fault which can be considered as a line source (Fig. 2). Figure 1. Density of population in the submountain zone. The landslides in the submountain zone were predominantly solved as separate cases although there had been some earlier attempts to carry out systematization and classification (Fijember 1951). Later on, Cesarec & Polak (1986) classified movements on the slopes (according to Skempton & Hutchinson 1969) noting some triggering factors. They pointed at the methods of stability analysis applied to the Zagreb landslides and the monitoring Legend: 1 - Regional fault; 2 - Fault; 3 - Fault zone; 4 -Epicentre of the strongest earthquake; 5 - Fault with designated horizontal movement; 6 - Rotation of tectonic blocks. Figure 2. Seismotectonic model of Medvednica and the locations of seismic excitation sources (after Cvijanovi et al. 1980). of some repaired landslides. At that time they studied the landslides under static conditions and their work was meant to be used as a guideline to those who would be engaged in the problem of slope slides in the Zagreb area. In this respect, the regional approach to slope stability under seismic conditions as presented here is related with the mentioned study. Accordingly, in the submountain zone the geotechnical hazard could be defined by the behaviour of the slopes under dynamic conditions although some other incidents may take place in this zone as well. This work has been developed in the framework of the research projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology: Subsurface-Geologic and Geohazard Explorations in Croatia (in succession of Healthy Living) and the standing project OIGK RH (Basic Engineering-Geological Map of the Republic of Croatia), scale 1:100,000. 2 NATURAL CONDITION OF THE SUBMOUNTAIN ZONE 2.1 Geologic Structure and Relief The submountain zone extends over the south-east foot of the Medvednica mountain from Podsused to Zelina, parallel with the direction of its massif. Among the relief elements a submountain valley is being distinguished as well as the nearly perpendicular ridges of the predominant north-south and partly north northwest-south southeast direction with the mountain streams flowing in the same Legend: 1 - Medvednica mountain ridge; 2 - Submountain valley; 3 - Orographic axis; 4 - Location of prevailing slope model. Figure 3. Basic elements of the Medvednica relief. directions. The basic elements of the area relief are represented in Figure 3. Geologic structure of the submountain zone is distinguished by the neogene deposits overlapping the older rocks of the Medvednica massif. In the area with massive occurrence of unstable slopes and slides three stratigraphic members are prevailing: the youngest members of Miocene - Lower and Upper Pont (M17 and M27) and plioquaternary deposits (Pl,Q) that are covered with loess (lQ1) (iki 1995, Basch 1995). The lower-pont deposits are represented mostly by clayey marls while the upper - pont - Rhomboidea deposits consist of clayey-sandy marls and clays with gradual transition into poorly cemented up to loose silty sands and sandy silts. They form a continuous belt under the plioquaternary sediments having a gentle inclination toward south and south-southeast. The plioquaternary formations have been sedimented on the eroded base and in general the paleorelief is inclined toward south and south-southeast. They have a heterogeneous composition - predominantly silty clay with lenses of sandy gravels which is a basal member in places. Their origin is believed to be proluvial, proluvial-fluvial, fluvial and fluvial-lacustrine. In general, they become thicker toward south where their maximum depth obtained by boring is 65 m and where they are also described in detail (Polak 1978). It is to be mentioned here that the existence of swelling minerals is rather important for the behaviour of these deposits (Slovenec & iftar 1991). 2.2 Seismicity As to the knowledge so far the city of Zagreb is within the most active zone of the continental part of Croatia (Cvijanovi 1983). In the Zagreb epicentral area the earthquakes are the result of the contact between the structures of the Panonian basin and the structures of the "Medvednica - Kalnik range". In Croatia this zone covers the northern hillsides of Bilogora, Kalnik, Ivanica, Medvednica, Vukomerike gorice and umberaka gora. According to the groups of earthquake hypocentres in Zagreb and its proper area the following localities can be distinguished: Medvednica, umberaka gora, Pokuplje, Kalnik, Ivanica and Zagorje, northern part of Bilogora (Cvijanovi et al. 1978). The submountain zone is characterized by the earthquakes with the epicentre in the Medvednica mountain. These are also the strongest earthquakes occured so far in the Zagreb epicentral area. Generally speaking, the major number of the earthquakes and the strongest earthquakes refer to the southern hillsides of the Medvednica mountain and some of their hypocentres were in the Podsused -Zelina area. In the seismically most active part of Medvednica, near the villages Kaina and Planina, there was the hypocentre of the strongest earthquake occured on November 9, 1880 (Fig. 2). The maximum intensity in the epicentre and in the proper area was estimated to be IX degree MCS and VIII degree MCS in the remaining part of the city of Zagreb. The magnitude of this earthquake is estimated to be M = 6,0 - 6,5. In the same locality another two strong earthquakes occured: on December 17, 1905 (I0 = VII - VIII degree MCS, M = 5,6) and on January 2, 1906 (I0 = VIII degree MCS, M = 6,1). The depth of the hypocentre of the mentioned earthquakes is estimated to be 5 to 10 km. Also, it is very significant that the hypocentre of the strong earthquake on December 17, 1901 was under the city (I0 = VII degree MCS, M = 4,6) in the estine area. The mentioned quantitative data on seismic activity in the Medvednica mountain could be completed with the following information: a) along with strong quakes usually also a great number of subsequent weaker aftershocks occur and their cumulative effect may be important as well; b) since the considered area from Podsused to Zelina is in a fault zone the fractures in the ground caused by displacements along the fault may be also expected. 2.3 Basic Geotechnical Macrozones The wider area of Zagreb can be clearly divided into three macrozones with specific properties of the Legend: A - Well petrified neogene and older rocks; B -Slightly petrified and poorly cemented neogene rocks (soils), plioquaternary clays and loess; C - Holocene proluvial and alluvial fans. Figure 4. Schematic cross-section of the basic geotechnical macrozones in the Zagreb area. ground condition. Each of these zones is distinguished by the respective geologic structure, relief, geodynamic site conditions and hydrogeologic properties and accordingly they can be referred to as the basic geotechnical macrozones (Jurak & Mihali 1995). The mentioned zones are completely separated one from the other by faults (Fig. 4). In the hydrologic zoning of the Medvednica catchment area the submountain zone i.e. the geotechnical macrozone B is also being distinguished as a separate morphohydrographic belt (Rupi & ugaj 1982). 3 DISTRIBUTION OF LANDSLIDES There is a great number of data on the landslides in the area of Zagreb. The data are collected from the Basic Engineering-Geological Map of the Republic of Croatia, scale 1:100,000, "Zagreb" Sheet and "Ivani-grad" Sheet (Miklin et al. in press). The landslides are represented by dots (area smaller than l ha) and by polygons (area bigger than l ha). The biggest landslides reach up to 1 sq. km (Fig. 5). The greatest number of landslides is in the area of miocene (M71-2) and plioquaternary deposits (Pl,Q) that form a narrow submountain zone composed of marl and clay. In the "Zagreb" Sheet the plio-quaternary deposits prevail and landslides are not so numerous as in the "Ivani Grad" Sheet where the miocene deposits prevail and the number of landslides is twice as much, however, in total they cover a smaller area (Table l). The prevailing model of most slopes of the submountain zone is represented in Figure 6. Characteristic is the hypsometric diferentiation according to the type of instability which also requires a selection of the methods of dynamic stability analysis - one method for the circular slip surface and the other for the infinite slope. 4 CONDITION OF SLOPES AND SEISMIC PARAMETERS 4.1 Condition of Slopes prior to Earthquake Considering the classification of the causal factors as preparatory factors and triggering factors it can be said that the origin of recent landslides is affected by ground conditions, geomorphological processes (permanent erosion of the slope toe), physical processes with seasonal characteristics (prolonged high precipitation) and particularly significant permanent and cumulative man-made processes. All Legend: l - Loess; 2 - Plioquaternary formations; 3 - Lower and upper-pont deposits; 4 - Landslide area exceeding l ha; 5 - Landslide area smaller than l ha. Figure 5. Distribution of landslides and unstable slopes in the submountain zone. above mentioned factors are preparatory factors. As triggering factors two incidents can cause massive occurence of landslides. These are extreme hydrologic occurences - torrential floods from Medvednica caused by the intensive, short - period rainfalls with 1000 year return period and the quakes with the direct and indirect effect which are considered in this paper. Both mentioned incidents enter from the group of physical processes (Popescu 1994). For the illustration, in the summer 1989 severe torrents were registered having all the characteristics of natural disaster (Gaji-apka 1990). The condition of most slopes in the moment of seismic excitation is represented in Figure 7 according to the UNESCO classification - Working Party on World Landslide Inventory (1993) is respected. 4.2 Seismic Coefficient (kS) The main parameter for dynamic computation of landslides at seismic excitation is seismic coefficient ks which is in correlation with the coefficient of seismic intensity KS. According to the Regulations on Technical Standards for Design and Computation of Table l. Landslide distribution in the "Zagreb" Sheet and "Ivani Grad" Sheet, Basic Engineering-Geological Map of the Republic of Croatia - the state completed with the year 1991. Medvednica submountain areaSurface area (sq. km)Landslide endangered areas (sq. km)Active landslides area (sq. km)Number of landslides represented by dotsNumber of landslides represented as polygonLandslide TotalZagreb Sheet127.6332.778.074998147 Ivani Grad Sheet202.7278.2811.8481178259Total330.35111.0519.91120276406 Legend: Geotechnical units: Ia - underlying formation-silty sand/sandy silt (M72); Ib - weathered zone; II - overlying formation - complex with prevailing clay (Pl,Q); III - deluvial -colluvial mass of mixed composition (Qd); 1 - permanent linear erosion; 2 - accumulation zone; 3 - conditions for artesian water; A - single rotational slips (asequent); B - global slope instability, retrogressive landslides (consequent). Figure 6. Prevailing model of most slopes in the submountain zone (after Jurak et al. 1996). Legend: a - stable in both geotechnical units; b - dtto, it is likely that the unit III is a dormant landslide or paleoslide; c -initial deformations of slope, beginning of retrogressive advancing; d - active landslide in unit III with very slow movement (creeping/sliding); e - active landslide with very slow movement in both units; f - accumulation of sliding mass on unit III and a possibility of activating deeper slip surfaces in unit 1b. Figure 7. Condition of slopes in the moment of seismic excitation based on the prevailing model (identical designations of geotechnical units as in Figure 6). Engineering Structures in Seismic Areas (1984) the latter is related to the degree of design seismicity. For the illustration, for VII degree MCS the corresponding factor is KS = 0.025; for VIII degree KS = 0.050 and for IX degree KS = 0.10. According to the results of engineering-seismological investigations made so far in the Zagreb area, the most probable values of the coefficients for the respective return periods in the area from Podsused to Zelina are represented in Table 2. The values for the 200 and 1000 year return period have been read from the Zagreb seismic microzoning maps (Geotehnika - Geoexpert 1988) and for the 500 year return period adopted from the paper of Mari et al. (1995). Table 2. Main parmeters for the computation of slope stability under dynamic conditions in the Podsused - Zelina area. Return period (year)Imax (MCS)amax (g)Ks2007.5-8.00.14-0.240.035-0.055008.60.210.0810008.0-9.00.20-0.400.05-0.10 It should be mentioned here that the values of the expected maximum acceleration a max (g) refer to the bedrocks while the values of the expected maximum intensity I max (MCS) already comprise the main local site conditions. Since the parameter of seismic coefficient ks has entered the dynamic stability computations, the first approximation at this regional approach to dynamic stability of slopes was carried out very carefully by adopting equal values for both coefficients (coefficient of seismic intensity KS and seismic coefficient kS). 5 COMPUTATION OF SLOPE STABILITY The computation of stability was made for the slopes of submountain zone ( a ...f) taking into account the prevailing model (Figs 6, 7). A formation of slide body was anticipated in geotechnical unit II - silty clay (predominantly clay of low plasticity - CL after USCS) and, respectively, in unit III - overburden composed of clay-silt-sand-gravel mixture (CL/S/G after USCS) and in unit Ib - weathered zone composed of silty sand (SM after USCS ). For geotechnical unit II the critical circular slip surfaces have been determined by using the SLOPE/W/Ver. 3 computer programme in which the method of limit equilibrium is used to compute safety factor. For units III and Ib the safety factors have been defined according to the computational model of an infinite slope with the site surface parallel to the slip surface and with the given inclination. In both cases dynamic excitation is computed as pseudo-static load i.e. the effect of inertial horizontal force H = kS slice weight has been respected. The selected computational model is represented in Figure 8. The characteristic values of the input parameters are given in Table 3. The values have been adopted according to the data obtained from the documentation on investigation works performed so far. The parameters cR and (R refer to the assumed residual values of cohesion and angle of internal friction. Figure 9. Influence of earthquake and groundwater level to slope stability. Table 3. The parameters for the computation of slope dynamic stability. Geotechnic. unit c Cohesion (kN/m2)j Angle of internal friction (0)g Unit weight of soil (kN/m3)z Depth up to slip surface (m)dw Depth up to ground water (m)b Slope inclination (0)ks Seismic coeff.  Remark Ib152719.07.0Water on surface250.035-0.10Weathered zoneII20 cR=020 jR=2020.05.0Water on surface15-300.035-0.10Overlying formationIII10 cR=020 jR=2018.05.0Water under pressure10-200.035-0.10Resedimented material For circular slip surfaces also a possibility of the occurrence of tension cracks has been taken into consideration. As extreme hydrogeological conditions the following has been adopted: groundwater level on the ground surface for geotechnical unit II and water under artesian pressure for geotechnical unit III. The results of stability computation are represented in Table 4 where the safety factors for the circular slip surfaces have been obtained by Bishop method. The change of safety factor in relation to the groundwater level for the case of infinite slope model is represented in Figure 9. Figure 8. Computational model 6 CONCLUDING REMARKS The results exhibit sensitivity and changeability of the condition of the existing slopes concerning seismic excitation as well as abrupt changes of pore pressure due to unfavourable hydrologic conditions. In other words, the present condition of slopes (a...f, Fig. 7) can be changed to a higher degree of instability up to the slope failure. By the probability gradation of particular results a basis for the representation of the slide hazard caused by earthquake would be obtained. Since the microzoning of the Zagreb area so far have not respected the dynamic stability of slopes (Bubnov et al. 1971a, b, Geotehnika - Geoexpert 1988) we recommend a range of activities as follows: - to use the documentation; - to review the existing unstable slopes and landslides and to register the new ones as well as to elaborate their inventory according to the appropriate methodology (Matkovi et al. 1995); - to make statistical analysis of the particular elements of landslides and unstable slopes; - to reduce the types of landslides and unstable slopes to a few models; - to represent the distribution of Table 4. Computation results for slope dynamic stability. Slope conditi-onSlip surface Geotech. Slide model unit c (kN/m2)j (0)g (kN/m3)z (m)dW (m)b (0)kSFS a IICircular slip surface 20.0 20 20.0 5.0 0.0 220.035 0.1001.120 0.960 IbInfinite slip surface  15.0 27 19.0 5.0 2.0 250.035 0.1001.062 0.913 b IICircular slip surface 20.0 20 20.0 5.0 0.0 220.035 0.101.120 0.960 IIIInfinite slip surface  8.0 20 18.0 5.0 1.0 120.075 0.101.006 0.919 c IICircular slip surface with tension crack 20.0 20 20.0 5.0In slide body gravity centre 220.035 0.101.326 1.137 IIIInfinite slip surface 10.0 20 18.0 5.0Dry Under art.press. 200.0 0.101.346 0.504 d IICircular slip surface with tension crack 20.0 20 20.0 5.0In slide body gravity centre 220.035 0.101.326 1.137 IIIInfinite slip surface  0.0 20 18.0 5.0 Dry 20 0.035 0.901 e IICircular slip surface 0.0 20 20.0 5.0Dry In slide body grav.cen.22 220.035 0.0351.001 0.898 IIIInfinite slip surface  0.0 20 18.0 5.0 Dry 20 0.035 0.901 f IICollapse - displaced mass - - - - - - - - IbInfinite slip surface  15.0 27 19.0 7.0 2.0 250.035 0.1000.892 0.762 models by a "Map of Landslide Models"; - to compute the stability of models by the simulation of a strong earthquake from the known epicentre during unfavourable hydrologic conditions; - to elaborate a map of the condition of slopes after the earthquakes which would represent a "Potential Map of Seismically Induced Landslides" in scale 1 : 10,000 or 1 : 5000. The suggested procedure follows to a certain extent the Deterministic landslide hazard analysis as presented in the paper by van Westen et al. (1997). While considering the landslide - seismic excitation relationship one should also note very complex phenomena during propagation of seismic waves from the hypocentre to the landslides under consideration as well as the direction of orographic axes against the epicentral area. There is, however, a question how to quantify the insufficiently investigated effects of earthquake, particularly the influence of topography, which so far have been recorded and described in some countries (Ishihara 1985, Bard 1995). The position of landslides on the slope is also likely to affect the selection of seismic coefficient (kS). The above recommended extensive work could be a firm basis for the evaluation of slope instability hazard in the Medvednica submountain area. REFERENCES Bard, P.-Y. 1995. Effects of surface geology on ground motion: Recent results and remaining issues. Proc.of 10th Europ. Conf. on Earthquake Engin., Vienna, 28 August - 2 Sept. 1994: 1: 305-323 Rotterdam: Balkema. Bash, O. 1995. Medvednica Geological Map (In Croatian). In K. iki (ed), Medvednica Geological Guide: Zagreb. Bubnov, S., D. Cvijanovi, V. Jurak, A. Magdaleni, D. Skoko & D. Vukovojac 1971a. Seismic zoning of Zagreb. Earthquake Enginering. Proc. of the third Europen Symp. on Earthquake Engin., Sofia, 14-17 Sept. 1970: 95-102. B.A.S. Bubnov, S., D. Cvijanovi, V. Jurak, A. Magdaleni & D. Skoko 1971b. Preliminary map of the sesmic microzoning of the town of Zagreb (In Croatian). Proc. of 1st Yugosl. Symp. on Hydrogeol. and Engin. Geology, Herceg Novi, 4-8 May 1971: 2: 67-73. YCHEG, Belgrade. Cesarec, M. & K. Polak 1986. Landslides in the Zagreb region (In Croatian). Proc. of XVI Symp. YSSMFE, Aranelovac, 5-8 November 1986: 2: 169-184. YSSMFE. Cvijanovi, D. 1983. Seismicity of the territory of the Socialistic Republic of Croatia (In Croatian). Integral geotechnical investigations of urban units for the purposes of geotechnical and seismic microzoning. Zadar, 12-14 May 1983: 1: 13- 40. Cvijanovi, D., E. Prelogovi & D. Skoko 1978. Seismic risk in the Zagreb area (In Croatian). Graevinar, 30, 2: 33-40. Zagreb. Cvijanovi, D., E. Prelogovi, D. Skoko, K. Mari & D. Mikovi 1980. Seizmotectonic zoning of Medvednica (In Croatian). Proc. of 6th Yugsl. Symp. on Hydrogeol. and Engin. Geology, Portoro, 12-16 May 1980: 2: 13-25. YCHEG, Belgrade. Fijember, M. 1951. Experiences with remedy of hillside slide of the Zagreb terrace. Graevinar, 3, 11-12: 17-35. Zagreb. Gaji-apka, M. 1990. Characteristics of the short-period precipitation during floods in the Zagreb wider area, summer 1989 (In Croatian). Extraordinary meteorological and hydrological events in the Socialistic Republic of Croatia in 1989. M6-13: 30-35. Republic Meterological Department of the Socialistic Republic of Croatia, Zagreb. Geotehnika - Geoexpert 1988. (unpubl.) Seismic microzoning of the town of Zagreb (14 municipal areas) (In Croatian). Professional documents, Zagreb Public Record Office. Ishihara, K. 1985. Stability of natural deposits during eartquakes. Proc. of the eleventh intern. conf. on soil mechanics and foundation eningeering, San Francisco, 12-16 August 1985: (editor Publications Committee of XI ICSMFE), 1: 321-376. Rotterdam/Boston: Balkema. Jurak, V. & S. Mihali 1995. Basic geotechnical zoning of the Zagreb region (In Croatian). Proc. of Second Conf. of the CSSMFE, Varadin, 4-6 October 1995: Geotechnical Engineering in Cities, 1: 429-439 . Jurak, V., I. Matkovi, . Miklin & S. Mihali 1996. Data analysis of the landslides in the Republic of Croatia: Present state and perspectives. Proc. of the seventh International Symposium on Landslides, Trondheim, 17-21 June 1996. 3: 1923-1928, Rotterdam: Balkema. Mari, B., D. Dujmi & V. Jurak 1995. Determination of the reconstruction condition of some parts of Medvedgrad castle ( In Croatian). Proc. of Second Conf. of the CSSMFE, Varadin, 4-6 October 1995: Geotechnical Engineering in Cities, 1: 351-358. Matkovi, I., V. Jurak & . Miklin 1995. Inventories of unstable slopes and landslides in the Zagreb region (In Croatian). Proc. of Second Conf. of the CSSMFE, Varadin, 4-6 October 1995: Geotechnical Engineering in Cities, 1: 367-376. Miklin, . et al (in press) OIGK Sheet Zagreb and Sheet Ivani Grad Institute of Geology Zagreb. ...1984. Draft regulation on technical standards for design and computation of egineering structures in seismic areas (In Croatian). Graevinar, 36, 7: 295-314. Zagreb. Polak, K. 1978. Einige Merkmale der quartarer Sedimente die auf dem Beispiel des Rutschgelandes Jelenovac bei Zagreb untersucht wurden (In Croatian). Geoloki vjesnik, 30/1: 151-165. Zagreb. Popescu, M. E. 1994. A suggested method for reporting landslide causes. Bull. of IAEG, 50: 71-74. Paris. Rupi, J. & R. ugaj 1982. Regulation of the streams Medvednica and Vukomerike Gorice (In Croatian). Graevinar, 34, 3: 91- 100. Zagreb. Skempton, A. W. & J. N. Hutchinson 1969. Stability of natural slopes and embankment foundations. State of the art volume. Proc. of 7 th ICSMFE, Mexico 1969: 7: 291-340. Slovenec, D. & D. iftar 1991. Vermiculite and smectite in clastic sediments of the southern slopes of the Mt. Medvednica. Geoloki vjesnik, 44: 121-127. Zagreb. iki, K. 1995. Structural relations and tectogenesis of the Medvednica wider area (In Croatian). In K. iki (ed), Medvednica Geological Guide: 31-40. Zagreb. Westen, C.J.van, N. Rengers, M.T.J. Terlien & R. Soeters 1997. Prediction of the occurrence of slope instability phenomena through GIS-based hazard zonation. Geol.Rundsch, 86: 404-414. Springer - Verlag. WP/WLI 1993. A suggested method for describing the activity of a landslide. 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