Naslov
Croatia's Economy in an Age of Polycrisis: The Risk of Turning Great Lap Times Into a Lost Race

Autori
Kotarski, Kristijan

Vrsta, podvrsta
Ostale vrste radova, popularni rad

Godina
2023

Ključne riječi
Croatia, EU, polycrisis, economic growth, convergence, inflation, GDP, EU funds

Sažetak
It seems that the proper characterisation of events occuring over the last couple of years is the age of polycrisis and permacrisis. COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's brutal onslaught on Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, climate change, natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and the appearance of new disruptive technologies, to name just a few of them. It is as if there is no end in sight to the extended period of insecurity and instability. In that regard the goal of this article is to investigate how Croatia has navigated this latest bout of instability. The central argument developed in this article is that Croatia has enjoyed a period of repeated successes over the last two years, notwithstanding previously mentioned calamities. In a nutshell, Croatia's economy and international standing, as reflected in the recent euro adoption and Schengen Area accession, have never been better since its independence. However, there is a growing risk of complacency. In the medium run, there is a risk of lagging behind in green transition, in spite of enjoying a solid starting point. In the long run, reform fatigue could delay or impede institutional reforms necessary to speed up economic convergence as the next national top priority. This will be of utmost importance if Croatia wants to be in a position to avert pending demographic crisis and reverse the extremely negative net migration trend affecting Croatia since 2008. Since the census in 2011, a staggering 3.4% of population emigrated abroad, while the negative net balance between those born and deceased was approximately 6.2% of 2011 population. On the other hand, post-socialist member states such as Slovenia, Czech Republic and Estonia, which managed to reach at least 85% of the average EU-27 GDP per capita in PPS over the last decade, were able to attain a positive net migration balance. For Croatia, the stories of Greece and Italy, or to a lesser extent Portugal, offer a cautionary tale. Being EU member state does do imply an unidirectional path towards ever rising prosperity, undepinned by steady influx of EU money and remittances. To sum it up, the main challenge for the Croatian political elite is to avoid the Siren song of turning politics into a cash handout machine and create a long-term vision of prosperity based on rising productivity and competitiveness. In that regard, Croatia's political economy will have to be ultimately reconfigured and adapted to new challenges of the 21st century

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija, Politologija

POVEZANOST RADA