Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1207432
Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches // Croatian medical journal, 63 (2022), 3; 295-298 doi:10.3325/cmj.2022.63.295 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1207432 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a
comparison of three analytic approaches
Autori
Lojić Kapetanović, Ante ; Lukezić, Marina ; Pribisalić, Ajka ; Poljak, Dragan ; Polašek, Ozren
Izvornik
Croatian medical journal (0353-9504) 63
(2022), 3;
295-298
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni
Ključne riječi
COVID ; modelling ; prediction
Sažetak
Aim: To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches. Method: We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0. Results: The R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27- 2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for the early epidemic stages, it was outperformed by the Heidler function fit. HWS achieved accurate short-term predictions and depended the least on model entry parameters. Neither model performed well across the entire observed period, which was characterized by multiple wave-form events, influenced by the re- opening for the tourist season during the summer, mandatory masks use in closed spaces, and numerous measures introduced in retail stores and public places. However, an extension of the Heidler function achieved the best overall fit. Conclusions: Predicting future epidemic events remains difficult because modeling relies on the accuracy of the information on population structure and micro-environmental exposures, constant changes of the input parameters, varying societal adherence to anti-epidemic measures, and changes in the biological interactions of the virus and hosts.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Temeljne medicinske znanosti, Javno zdravstvo i zdravstvena zaštita
POVEZANOST RADA
Projekti:
EK-KF-KK.01.1.1.01.0010 - Znanstveni centar izvrsnosti za personaliziranu brigu o zdravlju (ZCIPersonHealth) (Polašek, Ozren; Secenji, Aleksandar, EK ) ( CroRIS)
EK-EFRR-KK.01.2.2.03.0006 - Centar kompetencija u molekularnoj dijagnostici (CEKOM) (Knjaz, Damir; Lauc, Gordan; Vugrek, Oliver; Polašek, Ozren, EK - KK.01.2.2.03) ( CroRIS)
KK.01.1.1.01.0009 - Napredne metode i tehnologije u znanosti o podatcima i kooperativnim sustavima (EK )
Ustanove:
Fakultet elektrotehnike, strojarstva i brodogradnje, Split,
Medicinski fakultet, Split,
Visoko učilište Algebra, Zagreb
Profili:
Ante Lojić Kapetanović (autor)
Ajka Pribisalić (autor)
Ozren Polašek (autor)
Dragan Poljak (autor)
Citiraj ovu publikaciju:
Časopis indeksira:
- Current Contents Connect (CCC)
- Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
- Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
- SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
- Scopus
- MEDLINE