Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1199984
Signals approach to crisis prediction: the case of the united states of America
Signals approach to crisis prediction: the case of the united states of America // Proceedings of 11th International Scientific Symposium “Region, Entrepreneurship, Development” / Leko Šimić, Mirna (ur.).
Osijek: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, 2022. str. 59-72 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1199984 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
Signals approach to crisis prediction: the case of the united states of America
Autori
Bilas, Vlatka ; Kulić, Vedran
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni
Izvornik
Proceedings of 11th International Scientific Symposium “Region, Entrepreneurship, Development”
/ Leko Šimić, Mirna - Osijek : Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, 2022, 59-72
Skup
11th International Scientific Symposium Region Entrepreneurship Development (RED 2022)
Mjesto i datum
Osijek, Hrvatska, 09.06.2022. - 11.06.2022
Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje
Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija
Ključne riječi
signals approach ; crisis ; COVID-19 ; USA
Sažetak
The main goal of this paper is to present a signals approach to crisis forecasting and apply it to the economy of the United States of America. The signals approach takes into account the historical movement of key variables, determines potential predictors which enables a relevant comparison of significant variables before and after the global COVID-19 pandemic. Variables that have proven to be significant in the historical period have been used to create composite indices for the entire economy, but also each of the individual sectors identified as a possible source of the crisis, according to different types of crises. A total of 32 variables were selected from the relevant literature and analysed, from January 1, 1971, until the latest available data, as follows: variables related to currency or balance of payments (7 variables), banking or financial sector (10 variables), public sector (5 variables) and the wider economy (10 variables). The conducted analysis shows that a total of 19 variables recorded significantly different trends in pre-crisis times than the originally selected 32. Pre-crisis times are defined as 12 months before each peak of the economic cycle. The analysis shows that the USA economy was ready for the crisis, i.e., that significant variables did not indicate a reversal of the business cycle before the external shock. Furthermore, the results for 12 months after the shock indicate that significant variables still do not indicate a future crisis, with an important note that all composite indices increased, i.e., significantly approached the threshold which has in the past pointed to an impending disruption in the economy.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija
