Naslov
Performance of several models for predicting start date of phenological stages of grapevine in Croatia

Autori
Omazić, Branimir ; Blašković, Lucija ; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Skup
Meteorološki izazovi 8: Zrak koji udišemo, zrak koji prognoziramo/ Challenges in meteorology 8 The air we breathe, the air we forecast

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 28.04.2022. - 29.04.2022

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Domaća recenzija

Ključne riječi
vinova loza ; Hrvatska ; temperatura ; fenofaze
(grapevine ; Croatia ; temperature ; phenological stages)

Sažetak
As many studies shows, temperature is key element that affects grapevine growth. Global warming and temperature rise shifted grapevine phenology in many vineyard regions worldwide. In Croatia, viticulture represents one of the most important branches of agriculture in the economical and traditional sense. Therefore, it is important to study changes in vine growth, as well as impact of meteorological parameters on it, so that it can be used to predict suitability and growth under future climate. In this study, dates of beginning of 3 phenological phases (budburst, flowering and veraison), as well as harvest dates, collected from wineries across country, were analyzed. Different statistical methods, that use daily temperature and temperature sum (Growing degree day with base 10 or 5°C) are used to determent beginning of these phases. Results show earlier appearances of almost all phases, regardless of variety. With rise of temperature, the duration between two phases is shorted and that leads to an earlier harvest. Statistical methods generally predict dates well. The best prediction is for budburst and harvest dates with correlation coefficient higher then 0.7. Temperature correlation is worse for predicting flowering and veraison, but shorter period between flowering and budberst as well as between veraison and flowering can correlated with higher temperature.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika, Interdisciplinarne prirodne znanosti, Poljoprivreda (agronomija)

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