Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1186447
A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic // Scientific reports, 12 (2022), 4773, 8 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-08795-9 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1186447 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic
Autori
Scitovski, Rudolf ; Sabo, Kristian ; Ungar, Šime
Izvornik
Scientific reports (2045-2322) 12
(2022);
4773, 8
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni
Ključne riječi
pandemic ; COVID-19 ; growth models ; global optimization least squares
Sažetak
In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays τ>0 for deaths and δ>0 for hospitalized, on the number of new cases. We illustrate the application of our method using data from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia, but the method can be applied to any new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to any other possible pandemic. We also supply freely available Mathematica modules to implement the method.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Matematika
POVEZANOST RADA
Ustanove:
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Matematički odjel, Zagreb,
Sveučilište u Osijeku, Odjel za matematiku
Citiraj ovu publikaciju:
Časopis indeksira:
- Current Contents Connect (CCC)
- Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
- Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
- Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
- SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
- Scopus
- MEDLINE
