Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 1180507
Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators
Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators // Quality & quantity, 56 (2022), 4511-4535 doi:10.1007/s11135-021-01306-4 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 1180507 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the
leading properties of business and consumer survey
indicators
Autori
Sorić, Petar ; Škrabić Perić, Blanka ; Matošec, Marina
Izvornik
Quality & quantity (0033-5177) 56
(2022);
4511-4535
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni
Ključne riječi
Business and consumer surveys ; Heterogeneous panel Granger causality ; Disagreement ; Irrational sentiment ; Adaptive expectations
Sažetak
Ever since their initiation 60 years ago, the harmonized European Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) have risen to the challenge of performing as a solid data pillar for quantifying leading indicators of economic activity. However, mainstream research mainly focuses on publicly available composite BCS confdence indicators and inspects their predictive accuracy. We depart from this stance by considering a battery of novel techniques for quantifying BCS-based leading indicators with the particular aim to evaluate their predictive characteristics compared to conventional BCS leading indicators. We build upon the recently established weighted balance method, forecast disagreement, and surprise index. Additionally, we difer from the standpoint of rational expectations by introducing indicators of irrational sentiment and adaptive expectations, which have not previously been used in BCS studies of this sort. Our analysis in industry, consumer, and retail trade sectors of 28 European economies reveals that most of these novel techniques (especially irrational sentiment and adaptive expectations) produce more accurate predictions of economic activity than standard BCS benchmarks. These results are robust to several panel estimation procedures (heterogeneous panel Granger causality test and panel vector autoregressions, in particular).
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija
POVEZANOST RADA
Projekti:
IP-2018-01-4189 - EKONOMSKI SENTIMENT: STATISTIČKI, POLITIČKI, BIHEVIORALNI I MEDIJSKI ASPEKTI NJEGOVOG UTJECAJA NA EKONOMSKU AKTIVNOST (EconSent) (Sorić, Petar, HRZZ - 2018-01) ( CroRIS)
Ustanove:
Ekonomski fakultet, Split,
Ekonomski fakultet, Zagreb
Citiraj ovu publikaciju:
Časopis indeksira:
- Scopus