Naslov
Using Google to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio- Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic

Autori
Jurić, Tado

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
The 3rd International Scientific Conference "Coping with Crisis: Pathways towards Resilience" - book of abstracts / Pačić-Turk, Ljiljana ; Žutić, Maja - Zagreb : Odjel za psihologiju Hrvatskog katoličkog sveučilišta, 2022, 161-161

ISBN
978-953-8014-62-8

Skup
3. međunarodna znanstvena konferencija: Suočavanje s kriznim situacijama – putevi jačanja otpornosti

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 09.12.2021. - 11.12.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Google trends ; COVID-19 ; birth rates ; domestic violence ; predicting demographic trends ; family

Sažetak
Background: Our study reduces the gap in human behaviouralndata by providing timely and accurate data on individual behaviours, attitudes and monitoring families in Croatia during the pandemic COVID-19. We illustrate how Google Trends, together with the official data, can offer an innovative and powerful tool for rapid and continuous data collection to monitor trends in behaviours relevant for families and mitigation strategies of COVID-19. Methodology: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool (GT). We divided the keyword frequency for selected words giving us a search frequency index, and then compared searches with official statistics to prove the signification of results. Perceived regularities make it possible to predict trends. Results: 1) Google Trends tools are suitable for predicting the emergence of new COVID-19 cases in Croatia. The data collected by this method correlate with official data. In Croatia, search activities using GT for terms such as “PCR +COVID” and symptoms “cough + corona”, “pneumonia + corona”, ; “muscle pain + corona” correlate strongly with officially reported cases of the disease. 2) The method also shows effects on family life, increase in stress, and domestic violence. 3) Birth rate in 2021 will be just 87% of what would be “a normal year” in Croatia. 4) This tool can give useful insights into domestic violence. Restrictions: Unquestionably, there are still significant open methodological issues and the questionable integrity of the data obtained using this source. Furthermore, GT does not provide demographic data about the sample. Although these open-ended issues pose serious challenges for making clear estimates, statistics offer a range of tools available to deal with imperfect data and develop controls that take data quality into account. Conclusion: All results show that the increase in Google search is correlated with the increase in the number of new cases recorded by official statistics and that the decrease in Google search is correlated with the decrease in the number of new cases recorded by official statistics. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable public health officials to prepare and better respond to the possible return of a pandemic in certain parts of the country and the need for responses to protect family well- being as well as to enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal intervention strategies.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Javno zdravstvo i zdravstvena zaštita, Demografija, Interdisciplinarne društvene znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA