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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 115750

Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5


Ivančan-Picek, Branka; Glasnović, Dražen; Jurčec, Vesna
Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5 // Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 12 (2003), 2; 103-112 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


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Naslov
Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5

Autori
Ivančan-Picek, Branka ; Glasnović, Dražen ; Jurčec, Vesna

Izvornik
Meteorologische Zeitschrift (0941-2948) 12 (2003), 2; 103-112

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Mesoscale Alpine Program; ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model; heavy precipitation; local forecast; nowcasting

Sažetak
During the Mesoscale Alpine Program - Intensive Observing Period 5 (MAP IOP 5) heavy precipitation occurred in the early morning of 4 October 1999 along the border between Slovenia and western Croatia. Orographic influence on convectively unstable air advected by the warm and humid current from the Mediterranean caused a large amount of rain. The existing frontal zone was modified by the convergence between the southerly winds associated with the Alpine lee cyclogenesis, and the northerly flow around the eastern flank of the Alps after a splitting process in the north Alpine orographic blocking. For special MAP IOP5 soundings, observations were made at 3- or 6-hourly time intervals, while prognostic temps on the direct ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model output at every 3 hour were taken for Ljubljana, Udine and Zagreb. These datasets were used as the input data for objectively derived vertical time cross-sections indicating the both observed and predicted atmospheric structure and its temporal changes at considered localities. The diagnostic procedure was based on the HRID model (hereafter: High Resolution Isentropic Diagnosis). The analysis of the low tropospheric structure offers an explanation of this extraordinary case with a rapid frontal and orogenic development. The basic features are: 1. the strong vertical wind shear and pronounced convective instability ahead of the front ; 2. the very high humidity concentration inside the frontal zone ; 3. a typical bora layer covered by temperature inversion after the frontal passage, and 4. a layer characterized by a weakening wind system above the temperature inversion. The latest process inhibits the vertical growth of convective clouds. Consequently, the observations of hourly precipitation amount in Zagreb and its surroundings show gradual decrease and, finally, cessation of rainfall. It is shown that the ALADIN/LACE model and its application by HRID were able to predict the essential features of these phenomena with high reliability as well as their usefulness and applicability in making local forecasts and nowcasting.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekti:
0004001

Ustanove:
Državni hidrometeorološki zavod


Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

Ivančan-Picek, Branka; Glasnović, Dražen; Jurčec, Vesna
Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5 // Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 12 (2003), 2; 103-112 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
Ivančan-Picek, B., Glasnović, D. & Jurčec, V. (2003) Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 12 (2), 103-112.
@article{article, author = {Ivan\v{c}an-Picek, Branka and Glasnovi\'{c}, Dra\v{z}en and Jur\v{c}ec, Vesna}, year = {2003}, pages = {103-112}, keywords = {Mesoscale Alpine Program, ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model, heavy precipitation, local forecast, nowcasting}, journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, issn = {0941-2948}, title = {Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5}, keyword = {Mesoscale Alpine Program, ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model, heavy precipitation, local forecast, nowcasting} }
@article{article, author = {Ivan\v{c}an-Picek, Branka and Glasnovi\'{c}, Dra\v{z}en and Jur\v{c}ec, Vesna}, year = {2003}, pages = {103-112}, keywords = {Mesoscale Alpine Program, ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model, heavy precipitation, local forecast, nowcasting}, journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, issn = {0941-2948}, title = {Analysis and ALADIN prediction of a heavy precipitation event on the Eastern side of the Alps during MAP IOP 5}, keyword = {Mesoscale Alpine Program, ALADIN/LACE mesoscale model, heavy precipitation, local forecast, nowcasting} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus





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