Naslov
Tourism demand forecasting – the case study of the Republic of Croatia

Autori
Pavlić, Ivana ; Golemac, Zrinka

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
DIEM 2021 „Global Challenges, Crisis Management and Sustainable Development“ Book of Abstracts / Vrdoljak Raguž, I. - Dubrovnik : Sveučilište u Dubrovniku, 2021, 80-80

ISBN
978-953-7153-58-8

Skup
5th Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting DIEM 2021: Global Challenges, Crisis Management and Sustainable Development

Mjesto i datum
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska, 02.07.2021. - 03.07.2021

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Recenziran

Ključne riječi
tourism demand ; forecasting ; SARIMA

Sažetak
Tourism has an important role in economic development of many countries all over the world. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) in 2018 the direct, indirect and induced share of tourism in GDP in the Republic of Croatia was 25%. Also, the share of employees in tourism was 25% and tourism participates in total exports with 38.6%. Considering that fact, the need for tourism demand forecast has been recognised for years on one side by scientists and on the other side by policy makers. The main purpose of this paper is to determine a model best fitting the tourist demand in the Republic of Croatia and to forecast the number of tourists’ arrivals in The Republic of Croatia for the next five years. The method of maximum likelihood was applied in order estimate the parameters and to forecast the number of tourists in the future. Research results indicate a significant prevalence a strong seasonal influence on the total number of tourism demand in The Republic of Croatia. This paper provides practical implications for policy makers.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA