Naslov
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

Autori
COVIDSurg Collaborative

Izvornik
British journal of surgery (0007-1323) 107 (2020), 11; 1440-1449

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
SARS‐CoV‐2 ; COVID‐19 ; elective surgery ; cancellation

Sažetak
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert-response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case- mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case- mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28, 404, 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2, 367, 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25, 638, 922/28, 404, 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25, 638, 921/31, 378, 062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2, 324, 069/6, 162, 311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441, 611/1, 735, 483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post-pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Biotehnologija u biomedicini (prirodno područje, biomedicina i zdravstvo, biotehničko područje)

Napomena
COVIDSurg Collaborative / EUSOS Site
Investigators (*means Local lead Investigator):
Croatia: National Co-ordinators: Tatjana
Goranović, Branka Mazul-Sunko (University
Hospital Sveti Duh Zagreb). Akromion Special
Hospital for Orthopaedic Surgery: Krapinske
Toplice, Krešimir Oremuš*. University Hospital
Dubrava Zagreb: Gabrijela Bešlić, Viktor Duzel*,
Ada Hauptman, Sanja Peremin, Andrej Šribar,
Miroslav Župčić. General Hospital Dr Josip
Benčević: Slavonski Brod, Ivan Mirković*. General
Hospital Karlovac: Zlata Šarić Bauer, Matija
Belavić, Božidar Blažanin, Mirjana Lončarić
Katušin, Antonija Brozović Krijan, Petar
Mišković, Nataša Šimić-Korać, Jasna Topić,
Antonio Žilić*, Josip Žunić University Hospital
Merkur Zagreb: Ivana Acan, Mirta Adanić, Nikola
Ivanov, Jadranka Pavičić Šarić*, Katarina
Tomulić, Nataša Visković. University Hospital
Center Osijek: Silvana Bošnjak, Ivana Haršanji
Drenjančevic*, Gordana Kristek, Slavica Kvolik,
Stela Markić, Andreja Stojanovic Rakipovic, Ozana
Katarina Tot, Darija Venzera- Azenic. General
Hospital Pula: Lada Kalagac Fabris*. University
Clinical Center Rebro Zagreb: Iva Bačak-Kocman*,
Igor Balenović, Daniela Bandić, Patricia Adrianne
Judith Deutsch, Loredana Divjak, Ina Grčić
Filipović, Zvonka Gužvinec, Zrinka Krznarić,
Yvonne Lončarić, Jelena Vadlja Magaš, Marek
Mitrović, Marija Okić, Mario Pavlek, Elza Ramov,
Karolina Rezek, Ante Sekulić, Boris Tomasevic,
Mirjana Mirić, Anita Tomašević, Tina Tomić
Mahečić, Vilena Vrbanović. Clinical Hospital
Centre Rijeka: Mirna Bobinac, Alfred Božić*,
Danijela Debelic, Vedran Frkovic. University
Hospital Center Sestre Milosrdnice: Inga Mladić
Batinica, Senka Baranović, Željka Gavranović*,
Mirna Kikec, Branka Maldini, Stela Marić.
University Hospital Split: Ivan Agnić, Nikola
Delić, Nataša Dropulić, Toni Kljaković Gašpić,
Darko Ilić, Božena Ivančev, Nenad Karanović*,
Dorjan Kuščević, Zlatko Marović, Matija Milić,
Ana Nevešćanin, Tatjana Petković, Mario Smoje.
University Hospital Sveti Duh Zagreb: Gordana
Brozović, Tatjana Goranović, Milana Jelisavac,
Martina Matolić, Branka Mazul- Sunko*, Dagmar
Oberhofer, Ana Marija Pavičić, Kata Šakić.
General Hospital Varaždin: Margarita Delija
Bozovic, Zvjezdana Kotorac Krecek, Renata
Krobot*. General Hospital Zadar: Tatjana
Andabaka, Mislav Bratanić, Orjana Dzepina,
Martina Kraljev, Julija Šeric, Tatjana Šimurina*.
General Hospital OB Hrvatski Ponos, Knin: Rosa
Grujić, Biljana Nacevski-Bulaja*. General
Hosptial Šibenik: Mirna Barižon, Vrančić Danira,
Bulaja Dražen, Kimer Dušanka, Marijana Bašić
Halužan, Žaja Joško, Roca Katica, Magda Labor,
Tea Grgurević Marinković, Danči Mihovilčević,
Bego Marija, Marinković Srečko, Srđan Vranković*

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