Naslov
Planning of tourism development in Mali Lošinj (Croatia)

Autori
Cvitan, Lidija ; Zaninovic, Ksenija ; Lidija, Srnec

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 16, 2019 / - Kopenhagen, 2019

Skup
European Meteorological Society Annual meeting (EMS 2019)

Mjesto i datum
Kopenhagen, Danska, 09.09.2019. - 13.09.2019

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
CIT, tourist activities, periods 1981-2010 and 2021-2050, two regional climate models, several global atmosphere-ocean circulation models, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios

Sažetak
Mali Lošinj is one of the most popular Croatian tourist destinations situated on the island of Lošinj in northernAdriatic. Management of the Mali Lošinj Tourist Board is aware of the tourism industry vulnerability to climatechange. For their planning of tourism development they ordered the climatological study of suitability of presentand future local climate for different types of tourist activities. The study provided such information on the basisof climate index for tourism (CIT ; De Freitas et al. (2008)) determined for 06 UTC and 12 UTC. CIT integratesthermal, aesthetic and physical facets of the atmospheric environment and therefore it is suitable for estimationof the climate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very good. Suitability of climate was analysed for eightactivities: 1) beach tourism (3S - sun, sea and sand tourism), 2) cycling, 3) hiking 4) cultural tourism, 5) golf, 6)football, 7) motor boating and 8) sailing. Present climate is analysed for the period 1981-2010. The changes inclimate potential of tourism are estimated by changes of climate index for tourism in the future 30-year period2021-2050, according to the referent present period 1971-2000. Data for the future period are provided by twodifferent downscaling data sets, over European area with 12.5-km horizontal resolution. The first data sets werethose downscaled by regional climate model SMHI-RCA4 which was forced by five CMIP5 global atmosphere-ocean circulation models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-LR). Thesecond data sets were those downscaled by regional climate model RegCM4, version 4.2, which was forced by fourglobal atmosphere-ocean circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, MPI-ESM-MR and HadGEM2-ES). Inaddition, future climate projections were run under RCP4.5 as well as under RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios. In this way, the uncertainty of simulations of future climate was taken into account. Applied approach helped in detecting therange of CIT values in future and consequently in the assessment of destination’s tourism activities that the futureclimate will support.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

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