ࡱ> Y 3|bjbj884ZpeZpe"tz z 8d}$M*^xxx))))))),a/\)xxxxx)*x)x):$%,d%p Ոr^P% )*0M*Z% /j/d%d%/&xxxxxxx)):xxxM*xxxx/xxxxxxxxxz  : THE PROSPECTS OF SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION TURNING INTO A COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE NATO ALLIANCE Bostjan Peternelj Independent consultant on defence matters, doctoral candidate at the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Social Sciences, Slovenia  HYPERLINK "mailto:peternelj.bostjan@gmail.com" peternelj.bostjan@gmail.com Petar Kurecic University North, Department of Communication Science, Media and Journalism, Koprivnica, Trg dr. Zarka Dolinara 1, Croatia  HYPERLINK "mailto:petar.kurecic@unin.hr" petar.kurecic@unin.hr Lara Kauss Universidad Federal Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil (graduate student) larishka.lk@gmail.com INTRODUCTION The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (hereafter: the SCO) is a continental-sized organization that could rise up into a political-military pact. At first it serves as  HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasia" \o "Eurasia" Eurasian HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics" \o "Politics" political, HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy" \o "Economy" economic and HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security" \o "Security" securitytreaty under the bilateral marriage between China and Russia. It was created joined by the central Asian states:  HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan" \o "Kazakhstan" Kazakhstan, HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstan" \o "Kyrgyzstan" Kyrgyzstan, HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistan" \o "Tajikistan" Tajikistan, and HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan" \o "Uzbekistan" Uzbekistan, which create a security buffer at the Russias sensitive southern flank. The observer states in the SCO: Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia, and Belarus, are a part of this international organization. The continental sphere of influence of the SCOs forerunners Russia and China is even broader (Armenia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, and some Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, despite the still dominant US presence in the Gulf. A joint multidimensional cooperation could transform the SCO into a defense union and a counterweight rivalling NATO. Defence, security, logistics, economic market etc. are neuralgic spheres of mutual interests to take into considerations to fuse these states and other MENA states in Africa and sub-Saharan states. The USA has also gained some advantage hence Uzbekistan had abandoned Shanghai Six. However, since 2017,  HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India" \o "India" Indiaand HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan" \o "Pakistan" Pakistanhad joined with full membership. The geopolitical role of the SCO is widening and deepening dialogue with other regional Asian states. The topic of this paper is dedicated to fight against terrorism, separatism, and extremism by implementing further essentials goals, means and resources those are necessary to form a future defense union. THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION ON THE ROAD TO BECOMING A DEFENSE ALLIANCE The SCO has yet to finalize the expansion of its membership. In September 2014, the SCO HYPERLINK "http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/the-new-improved-shanghai-cooperation-organization/" \o "cleared" \t "_blank" clearedall legal hurdles to expansion at the heads of state summit, and India and Pakistan began the accession process at the July 2015 summit in Ufa, Russia. Belarus, a former dialogue partner, was also upgraded to the status of observer state. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, and Nepal were HYPERLINK "http://www.eurasianet.org/node/74191" \o "introduced" \t "_blank" introducedas new dialogue partners. As laid out in its charter, the organization HYPERLINK "http://www.sectsco.org/EN123/brief.asp" \o "functions as a forum" \t "_blank" functions as a forumto strengthen confidence and neighbourly relations among member countries and promote cooperation in politics, trade, economy, and culture, to education, energy, and transportation. The SCO has two permanent headquarters, the secretariat in Beijing and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. One of the organizations primary objectives is promoting cooperation on security-related issues, namely to combat the  HYPERLINK "http://www.refworld.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/rwmain?page=publisher&publisher=ASIA&type=&coi=&docid=49f5d9f92&skip=0" \o "three evils" \t "_blank" three evils terrorism, separatism, and extremism. The organization adopts decisions made by HYPERLINK "http://www.sectsco.org/EN123/show.asp?id=69" \o "consensus" \t "_blank" consensus, and all member states must uphold the core principle of non-aggression and non-interference in internal affairs (Albert, 2015). Today, the situation in the world economy is still too fragile. The process of economic globalization is under the threat of collapse. States are forcing to implement unilateral and protectionist measures (Joint Communique, 2018). Especially negative impact on global economic prospects is associated with international terrorism, but the aggravation of conflict situations in a number of regions decrease security situation into grey zones in African and Asian states. The most important message to the world presents decision by the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on approving the Programme of Cooperation between the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Countering Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism for 2019-2021 (List of Documents, 2018). This decision is the background to transform Shanghai organization into defence pact or union with producing own defence capabilities as to protect own geo-economics interest, but first those states needs to implement drafted Global strategy to show new military posture to the world tailored from Russia and China as leading states in SCO within organisations agenda. Russia takes the lead on politico-military affairs. China leads on economic development, investment and infrastructure. SCO leaders approved a new non-military collective response mechanism for responding to situations that put peace, security and stability in the region at risk which theoretically allows SCO members to intervene politically and diplomatically in other SCO members in case of internal conflicts (Grieger, 2015: 9). THE INITIAL PHASE CREATING MILITARY PACT TO RESIST AGAINST HYBRID INTERVENTIONS One of the primary roles stated by the SCO is cooperation in antiterrorism helping in the Central Asian states. A secondary consequence is preventing any need for such assistance from the US (Boyle, 2018). Sporadic and annually scheduled joint military exercises under Russias and Chinas war game scenarios to succumb with possible neither conventional nor unconventional conflicts into region any from those may disrupt this alliance by force into proxy wars. Geo-economics dimension includes proposed free-trade area protection to improve both the goods and joint energy projects secure like new hydrocarbon reserves and share water resources. Member states are going to participate in joint military activities and partake in large scale war games which are open for the media to witness (Vashishth, 2017). Is Shanghai military pact able to create the most stabile military force power projection that prevent, eliminate and fight against hegemonic usurpations into internal states of security matters from member states? Could these member states confront against US hegemonic hostile actions to preserve this military pact? It is absolutely an anti-Western and anti US alliance to stop geopolitical penetration into the Russian and Chinas sphere of influence politically, economically and culturally? The red line is where geopolitical borders are flashed between three superpowers along the CSTO states and abroad from extrapolation struggle policy by the SCO in Syria, Libya, and central African states. Hybrid experiment was implemented both by political experiment that evolve into military struggle to win into the gun powder policy. Another widespread perception of the SCO is as a Russian and Chinese-led alliance created to counterbalance the US supremacy both at the regional and global levels. Some analysts speculated, especially compared the SCO with the Warsaw Pact, whether this organization might develop into a counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and whether the world is witnessing the start of a new Eastern bloc (Tugsbilguun, 2009: 60). SCO maybe presents sleeping beauty that had been awakening again from slumber since the End of the Cold War and had shadowed global instability that guides back to the war. All SCO member states are nevertheless bounded to common interest, suppressing radical Islamist movements in their respective territories. Each has domestic problems with militant Islamist groups: Chechen separatists in the Northern Caucasus; the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in Chinese Xingjian-Uighur Autonomous Region is fighting to create an independent state; the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which were aided by the Taliban are operating in Central Asian states. As these militants have been receiving transnational support, Russia and China deemed it important to develop regional cooperation on counter-terrorism, while the smaller members have sought to eliminate the threat these groups posed to their regimes (Tugsbilguun, 2009: 72). Commercial approach into hybrid interventions were based on soft power regime change that import foreign specialists, mercenaries or fighters to get nibble as rates attacks on whole state strategic infrastructure within isolationist policy support from outside that evolve into currency rate exchange speculations, boycotting commercial goods etc. Western style interventionist policy is focused on specific ethnic groups, opposition clans and NGO fractions those had monetary support from outside of targeted states. Why is multidimensional assistance with (military or security) aid so important from pact or coalition to survive first punch that do not collapse political system which had been attacked from outside. SCO presents solution to prevent intervention into those states do not support western style rules. Polarization of power between regional states is evident toward bipolar global system west east axis, and reshuffled cards to fulfil vacuum what had left behind from hegemony. SCO tries to counterbalance against the West, but focused pinpointing against US to withdraw from the SCO sphere of interests too, not only from bordering abroad. What would happen if Turkey would become a full member of the SCO? It might be required to abolish its membership in NATO. It is not only about a merchant deal in fact that Turkey purchased Russias S-400 long-range, surface-to-air missile defence system in January 2018 (at a time when Turkey is still ostensibly being protected by NATO air and missile defences). The deployment of the S-400 anti-missile system poses problems of interoperability with other NATO members. Russia is also selling the S-400 system to China and is in discussions to do so with India. In other words, Turkey is acquiring a missile defence system that is compatible with those of Russia, China and perhaps India, but not with NATOs (Rowden, 2018: 9). Turkeys geostrategic location is important not only for geo-energetic connection to extensive network of gas pipeline projects but too especially for regional stability on the Middle East. It is the second biggest army in NATO, and its contribution to abandon NATO could play the most important role on the Middle East to form regional operative HQ inside Shanghai defence union. Turkey has strategic military assets to prevent the ISIS incursion into the Caucasus states, and overtake maritime based control above the Black Sea to the full respect of the Montreux agreement (1936). The SCO protects its own interests into defence matters but it could broaden security goals to extinguish (military) fire fights as to give protection to Non-Shanghai organization if military aid or assistance can be proposed from legally elected state governments which national security is violated. Examples, Syria government had asked for military help from Russia to fight against interstate opponents supported logistically from some NATO states and general Haftar in Libya had asked too for such support to fight against similar opponents. Iran is isolated even in the Persian Gulf from the US pressure while Iran could catalyse or deter by A2/AD strategy to encounter US navy presents in the Arab peninsula but it needs full support from the defence pact. Yemen presents choke points to NATO fleet sailing from Mediterranean axis of navy route to Indian Ocean. If Syria, Libya, Iran, Yemen and other Arab states would become full members of the Shanghai organization, then the US NATO interests would be seriously endangered. THE SECOND PHASE FIGHTING SPECIAL WARS AT THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CSTO Mutual agreement plays attention to promote guaranty in fight against hostile intention from US interventions into internal affairs. In this case ISIS promotes a weapon to carry out proxy wars, and mercenaries formed illegal terrorist organizations imported into each state for specific purposes. Kazakhstans President Nazarbayev has put resignation to speed up transformation of political process for what purpose but it could risk political struggle for power and energetic resources between elites as new point of interstate instability. Russian Federation had provided military and intelligence assistance to Tajik army as member of CSTO in re-equipping its forces to emanate terrorist transgression from Afghanistan territory. Turkey had been given meddle response in fight against terrorism properly to avoid confrontations with terroristic groups on own soil. Idlib pocket presents the evident proof how Turkey is fighting against terrorism inside controlled fence around pocket by building up watch dog control points at frontier. ISIS is awakening again like octopus into Central Asian space to attack energetic grids and installations from Russia via to China and India too. Away from sporadic attacks and classical military clashes those we were seen before in Syria and Iraq were transferred to conduct subversions and diversions against economic complexes on energetic junction into Central Asian states as to weakening Russian economy like new military approach strategy to obtain objects. If we imagine when terrorist cells cooperate together with NGO organization to obstruct non-military services into the country of main target from opponents like those subversive activities supported by another form of violence such conduct military coups or civil riots on streets, escalating economic and financial sanctions, sabotage energetic grids, subversion of civil and military institutions into corruption scheme etc. Hybrid warfare was introduced into pre phase to escalate interstate war that cannot be controlled or ruled out successfully from regular government. All states of the SCO must elaborate security plans according to the collective defence clause. That is an obligation, which may be drafted into the constitution for each state of CSTO and Shanghai defence pact into future. Russia boosted to promote the most advanced weapons used in Syria and conducted on polygon tests. After test phase some modern weapons will be used into military inventory by improving, nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence measures. Russia is going to adopt modern weapon systems, including some qualitatively new ones. It begins with production of new types of weapons, which are entering into military service. Avangard, Sarmat, the latest Peresvet and Kinzhal all showed high combat effectiveness. Poseidon and Burevestnik are successfully undergoing tests. Development of the Tsirkon hypersonic naval missile is progressing as planned. Russia gets ready for war and NATO states would be target by using those set of modern weapons of the fifth generation into deterrence strategy. New types of weapons will allow Russia to take advantage into an arms race with US and NATO. While US with NATO states are pushed into disadvantage against Russia, they had established a forward presence in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, as well as in Norway. Which game is going to play Europe to transgress Shanghai organization as counterweight at western flank of it? False flag is creating for bad image from imaginable dangerous Russia and China to EU member states, what the United States are now preparing for the defense of Europe. US are getting ready to test ground-based ballistic missiles (forbidden by the INF Treaty), that is to say new Euromissiles which will once again make Europe the base and at the same time, the target of a nuclear war (Dinucci, 2019). Russian military priority goal into military strategy for NATO deterrence is to destroy US army arsenal in Europe up to 90 percent to being totally non-operational and useless into the first preventive strike. Russia will not wait for second strike, just first strike will be terminated on US military facilities in Europe by using tactical nuclear warheads if escalation scenario runs into nuclear war in Europe. European NATO states shall rethink if they need US support to risk own destruction. Collective defence of NATO states exists only on scribbled paper in the contract without any guaranty for Europe from US partners. What is reality? Well, in this case US will risk destruction of US troops in Europe as to minimize or being avoid war damage on own soil. STRATEGIC DEFENCE FORCE PLAN PROJECTION What forces are needed to defend defence union and are going to be activated for abroad missions? Here were used two peer organization systems to enrol military cadres on national basis by using framework nation plan where each member state overlay national pool of military capabilities to defence union. Military forces are separated into two essential echelons A and B, which the first echelon A consists of interoperable high trained, mobile, agile and the most advanced equipped battle groups from each member state. The lowest intervention units present brigade formation that could be fused into multinational or one national divisions or corps under national command, while international coordination command centre at joint higher tactical an operative level is needed for better military coordination on the field by using intelligence, supply and logistic maintenance, and transport capabilities to lift troops on remoted battle filed locations into crises area of operations. Strategic supreme command post by conducting military decisions belongs to joint General staff command centre in Moskva to coordinate all operations into defence union or abroad as military assistance to invaded state on the basis of asking permissions to react from defence union. A political decision to use multinational forces would be needed from civil defence body as Supreme Council of Shanghai (foreign) defence policy. Echelon A could count to four corps based at four axes to react swiftly and be manned until 250 thousand professional solders, each corps consists to four divisions of up to 60 thousand solders. Echelon B presents as national pool of army units to fulfil or reinforce units of echelon A with field rocket artillery, medium long range rocket system, anti-defence systems, army aviation units, strategic nuclear forces etc. and air, land and maritime component to add more forces to echelon A, under joint command staff in Moskva if actually needed for suck military mission to expand military operations or campaigns abroad or inside defence union. It could count to 10 million solders army that would consist of both from professional solders (echelon B1 and B2) and contractual reservists (echelon C) core under national command units. While echelon A could be activated into less than 48 hours and transported to versatile battle fields at same time over 1.000 miles away from barracks with full support from echelon B at same time from drafted national framework concepts. Echelon B is three staged, while first stage echelon B1 (consists of one million solders) has to enlist or enrol those professional solders as reserve unit put on the list of priority to reinforce units of echelon A into next 15 days on the field or alert unit to react immediately; echelon B2 (consist of 1.5 million solders) could be activated into one month until mobilization plan for activating professional solders into the army service from each member states is not accomplished. Echelon C needs more time to activate contracted reservists. Smart logistic grid or platform belongs to part of defence production into military industrial complex that include production, transport, maintains, joint technological standards of defence products, and training & exercising by using most advanced military technology. Full member states could have access to common defence market under Eurasian custom union to purchase the most advanced military technology by offset mode on the shelf of defence storages. That is the right way for new possibility to modernize and transform own national armies under joint command structure and multinational forces are going to supply by pooling and sharing defence capabilities from Russia, China and India to small member states into logistic and maintenance. Multinational military drills in aspects of mutual cooperation and confidence in the domain of defence is imminent to conduct counterterrorism activities, and armament deal was included too to attain interoperability measures. Although the SCO started as a security organization extending from confidence-building measures at the borders to antiterrorist activities the SCO members frequently state that this organization is primarily meant for political and economic cooperation and that military coordination focusing on domestic security plays a minor role (de Haas, 2016). It was in the past but security situation had been changing drastically after NATO incursion into Afghanistan since 2001. They are worried about enmeshing from Western military deployment in Central Asia. We need military drills and exercising by conducting defence protocols after Eurasian army will be rebuild to prevent NATO access of approach into Central Asia space and abroad. Those military drills convey the international legal connotation of security, there is common understanding within the SCO that non-interference in internal affairs is a leading principle and priority into collective defence.Surely the situation is ongoing into opposite direction while a lack from a Central Asian political vision. This absence of a common Central Asian posture makes the region weak, more vulnerable toward external threats, e.g., those from Afghanistan, and at risk of being overruled by the two big players, Russia and China who poses nuclear arsenal and defence potential to rearm whole Eurasian army. Both states ought to open plenty barracks and bases along at southern flank to rebuild limes as Maginot defensive line or Chinese wall. Opening and widening defence cooperation to other states displace this defence line more southward as forward present into the most fragile states those were affected from intestate wars before. While the CSTO is an effective tool to military integration and coordination between Russian and Central Asian states, if the SCO security role will grow up into future and damage to Russian integrationist agenda (Frost, 2009: 92). Rivalry and diverging views insist between Russia and China that have seriously obstructed progress in the SCO's integration. Contrary to China, Russia has been eager to strengthen SCO-CSTO military cooperation, while China has advocated the creation of an SCO free trade zone to boost economic integration (Grieger, 2015: 9). Here were no negative effects or rivalry between both organizations. It is simple to describe the misunderstanding. CSTO presents regional defence organization under Russian umbrella into Central Asia similar to NATO defence cooperation into collective defence, while SCO is not defence union yet, if is going to form Shanghai defence union then it will play global role, global defence union will be tailored into multi regional defence pillars which could play regional roles under operative HQ from Russia, China, India, Turkey and Iran, (Pakistan) but joined under supreme military command of Eurasian army with strategic HQ in Moskva. Supreme defence ministerium could be stationed in Peking where is the seat of SCO. All strategic military operation & decisions will be guided from Russian HQ and five regional HQ could implemented regional operations formed into multinational corps. All defence decisions into foreign defence policy will be implemented from Peking. CONCLUSION The SCO needs to transform into more stable and connected union to protect own interests against NATO interventions in the world and cut of new world order under hegemonic tyranny toward imposed multipolar world or regional pillars. Benign economic association is not enough, so we need to protect geopolitics and geo-economics interest as been able to rebuild defence union and form joint military forces to protect smart logistic hubs abroad, and most important message to the Shanghai group to prevent such hostile internal states interventions from NATO states. Deterrence policy against NATO could enlarge vital interest by joining more violated states from Asia and Africa to join defence union. The SCO presents more stable and interconnected world as counterweight against chaos and instability from geo-economics aspect. Defence pacts might have a special mission under the clause of mutual or collective defence to protect those geo-economics interests especially from those states of grey zone which are vulnerable from outside interventions from the US and NATO. REFERENCES Albert, E. 2015. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Available at:  HYPERLINK "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/shanghai-cooperation-organization" https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/shanghai-cooperation-organization. Boyle, J. 2018. Available at:  HYPERLINK "https://www.quora.com/Is-Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization-a-military-alliance-sort-of-like-NATO-or-is-it-something-else" https://www.quora.com/Is-Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization-a-military-alliance-sort-of-like-NATO-or-is-it-something-else. De Haas, M. 2016. War Games of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Drills on the Move! 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Available at:  HYPERLINK "https://www.mongoliajol.info/index.php/MJIA/article/view/32" https://www.mongoliajol.info/index.php/MJIA/article/view/32. Vashishth, N. 2017. Available at:  HYPERLINK "https://www.indiatoday.in/fyi/story/shanghai-cooperation-organisation-pakistan-kashmir-china-sco-981500-2017-06-07" https://www.indiatoday.in/fyi/story/shanghai-cooperation-organisation-pakistan-kashmir-china-sco-981500-2017-06-07.     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