engleski

Export led growth hypothesis: the Croatian case revisited

This paper aims to examine the non-linear adjustments between exports and GDP in Croatia. This paper analyses quarterly data since the first quarter of 1997 to the second quarter of 2016 to support for export-led growth hypothesis in the Croatian economy. Unlike previous studies, the paper takes into account the possible nonlinear asymmetric effects of exports and GDP toward their long-run equilibrium. The results reveal a threshold cointegrating relationship between the two variables with significantly different error correction adjustments in normal and extreme regimes. The research results supported export export-led growth hypothesis in Croatia during the extreme regime only pointing on the seasonal effect on growth that may arise out of tourism activity.

Time series ; Nonlinearity ; Threshold Vector Error Correction ; Exports ; Economic growth.

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