engleski

Sustainability of the trade flows: the case of Bulgaria

The aim of the research is to examine the Bulgarian trade flows sustainability. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on a monthly data sample from the January 2009 to December 2016 illustrated co-integrating relationship between Bulgarian exports and imports. Granger causality test indicated bidirectional causality between the considered variables while the most of the adjustment was found to be governed by exports. Following univariate approach Bulgarian net export is found to exhibit ARIMA (3, 0) process with drift. The paper brings estimates of Bulgarian trade flows sustainability.

Vector Error Correction Model, Imports, Exports, Bulgaria

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