Napredna pretraga

Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 967543

A prediction for the solar cycle 24


Brajša, Roman; Verbanac, Giuliana; Cliver, Ed; Svalgard, Leif; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Woehl, Hubertus; Roth, Martin
A prediction for the solar cycle 24 // Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.
Šibenik, Hrvatska, 2009. str. 7-7 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, sažetak, znanstveni)


Naslov
A prediction for the solar cycle 24

Autori
Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Cliver, Ed ; Svalgard, Leif ; Hanslmeier, Arnold ; Woehl, Hubertus ; Roth, Martin

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment. / - , 2009, 7-7

Skup
Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.

Mjesto i datum
Šibenik, Hrvatska, 7-13 09. 2009

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Strength of the solar cycle, sunspot number, ARMA, correlation

Sažetak
Applying and combining different methods, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted. The combined method consists of the three parts: (i) the calculation of the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases, (ii) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima with the following activity maxima, and (iii) the method of the auto regressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the relative sunspot number data measured up to now. The used data sets include yearly, corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values. With these combined procedures a lower amplitude of the next solar activity maximum, in comparison with the previous one, is estimated.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Geofizika



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb,
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb