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Blocked Aspirations and Emigration of Croatian Youth

Providing an overall estimated volume of migration from Croatia is not easy. Official statistics show that in the newest period, especially after joining the European Union, Croatia faces an increasingly negative migration wave due to the consequences of the global economic crisis. In the last wave of migration (2006- 2016) 163.073 inhabitants have emigrated. For the youth in Croatia, 2018 is marked by persistence of economic crisis, ‘normalised’ precarity and unstable prospects, which forces an increasing number of young people to leave the country in a search for better education and employment opportunities. In this paper authors start from two research questions: first, how uncertainty of life prospect, especially in relation to the educational and employment outcomes, influences some aspects of young people’s lives (push factors) ; and second, what are the migration aspirations of young people and what specific pull factors are responsible for potential leaving. To answer these questions, two methodologically complement researches were carried out, involving quantitative and qualitative insights. In order to understand position of the young people in Croatia and a degree of their vulnerability, this paper will present data resulting from the Shell Youth Studies, conducted on the nationally representative samples of young people (N=1 500) in 2012 and 2018. Shell Youth Study data include information on the respondents’ socio- professional status, educational and professional aspirations, employment trajectories, working conditions, factors of finding and accepting a job, and migrations, enabling a dynamic analysis of young peoples’ status, aspirations and vulnerabilities. Area of migration is covered by the instruments on the motivations, duration and experiences of previous emigrations, considerations of moving abroad in a certain time- period, constraints for moving abroad and desired countries of immigration. The quantitative data will be supplemented by the data gathered via focus groups (N=56) that collected insights on previous migratory experiences and current aspirations of young people. The data will show that socio-economic status of young people in Croatia is deteriorating, making young people more prone to long-term migration. Such processes leave the country without valuable human resources, which contributes to further downgrading of its status in comparison to other EU-member states. The analytical framework places the research data inside the analysis of socio- political changes and transformations that Croatian society and economy have undergone since accessing the European Union.

youth, aspirations, Croatia, emigration

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