engleski

Qualitative overview of economic growth modelling from the perspective of uncertainty

Uncertainty is often overlooked in economic growth modelling which leads to reduced predictability of results and interpretations. That creates an urge to examine the effects of uncertainty in modelling economic growth. This paper provides the identification of the uncertainty causes: (1) selection of factors and variables, (2) measurement, (3) model choice. This overview of economic growth with emphasis on uncertainty shows an insight into the causes of results uncertaintys, which arise from problems in the identification and selection of factors, measurement and modelling. In addition, the paper offers examples of good practices and detection of trends in growth modelling. All the presented should be used for the reconsideration of the existing growth modelling methodology, and as an input for quantitative research for the empirical confirmation of conclusions presented in this paper.

Economic growth ; uncertainty ; economic modelling

nije evidentirano