engleski

Short-term solar forecasting based on sky images to enable PV integration

Concerns about greenhouse gas emissions lead to government incentives and lower prices of photovoltaic (PV) solar panels which in turn causes more extensive integration of renewable energy sources into the electric power system. Considerable integration of PV power generators into the power grid threatens power system secure operation due to unpredictable power fluctuations following cloud cover variations. Having at disposal accurate PV production short- term forecasts, a reduced volume of operating reserves would be necessary with the added possibility to engage slower-ramping units and a smaller amount of energy storage facilities. Considerable cloud spatial and temporal variability is a challenging task for numerical weather predictions using satellite images, but methods utilizing ground- based sky images successfully deal with it. In this paper, an overview of existing methods for short- term solar forecast will be presented following with research on how to improve them regarding forecast system equipment cost and accuracy. In the proposed research low-cost security cameras will be used to capture pictures of the sky providing input data for very short-term solar forecast at several different temporal scales. The accuracy of the proposed forecasting method will be compared with existing methods and actual solar radiation measurements on site. Also, the short- term solar forecast algorithm will be tested on a laboratory- scale microgrid model to evaluate the benefits of the proposed method in terms of microgrid optimal operation, potential advantages, and future improvements.

Short-term forecast ; Cloud tracking ; Renewable energy ; PV integration ; Power system control

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