Empirical tests of various cycle extraction methods ; GDP vs. industrial production in Croatia (CROSBI ID 659707)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Tomić, Daniel ; Stjepanović, Saša
engleski
Empirical tests of various cycle extraction methods ; GDP vs. industrial production in Croatia
Business cycles at their peak can be harmful for the whole economy, yet producing negative growth rates at their bottom. Since there is no general agreement on the causes of business cycles, the most intriguing debates revolve around the question on how to measure these phenomena. A central part of the business cycle analysis is therefore, the extraction of the cycles. The goal of this paper is to empirically test various extraction methods as to find which variable is suited to be named a reference business cycle indicator in Croatia as well as to evaluate the quality and accuracy of these extraction methods. Namely, we focused on deviation cycle extraction methods and compared them with an alternative business cycle approach, the growth rates. It was found that no method yields perfect results, however, most of the extraction methods showed much agreement in confirming a GDP indicator as a credible variable in representing Croatian business cycle.
business cycles, deviation cycle analysis, cycle extraction methods, parametric and non-parametric methods, filters, Croatia
ACKNOWLEDGMENT: This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project number 9481 Modelling Economic Growth - Advanced Sequencing and Forecasting Algorithm. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Croatian Science Foundation.
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Podaci o prilogu
27-37.
2018.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Economic and Social Development
Božina Beroš, M. ; Recker, N. ; Kozina, M.
Varaždin: VADEA ; Sveučilište Sjever ; Faculty of Management University of Warsaw
9-771849-753006
1849-7535
Podaci o skupu
The 27th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development
predavanje
01.03.2018-02.03.2018
Rim, Italija