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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 927778

The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation


(H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, Leila, M.; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell
The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation // The Astrophysical journal, 854 (2018), 2; 180-1 doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


Naslov
The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

Autori
Dumbović, Mateja ; Čalogović, Jaša ; Vršnak, Bojan ; Temmer, Manuela ; Mays, Leila, M. ; Veronig, Astrid ; Piantschitsch, Isabell

Kolaboracija
H2020-MSCA-IF-2015

Izvornik
The Astrophysical journal (0004-637X) 854 (2018), 2; 180-1

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) ; methods: analytical ; methods: statistical ; solarterrestrial relations ; solar wind ; Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

Sažetak
The drag-based model for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model that can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), that covers ensemble modeling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds. Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real- time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties, and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is ME = −9.7 hr, mean absolute error MAE = 14.3 hr, and root mean square error RMSE = 16.7 hr, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (ME = −6.1 hr, MAE = 12.8 hr and RMSE = 14.4 hr). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most likely owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekt / tema
HRZZ-IP-2013-11-6212 - Promjenjivost Sunca i zvijezda (Bojan Vršnak, )

Ustanove
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb

Profili:

Avatar Url Jaša Čalogović (autor)

Avatar Url Bojan Vršnak (autor)

Avatar Url Mateja Dumbović (autor)

Citiraj ovu publikaciju

(H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, Leila, M.; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell
The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation // The Astrophysical journal, 854 (2018), 2; 180-1 doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
(H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) Dumbović, M., Čalogović, J., Vršnak, B., Temmer, M., Mays, Leila, M., Veronig, A. & Piantschitsch, I. (2018) The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation. The Astrophysical journal, 854 (2), 180-1 doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66.
@article{article, year = {2018}, pages = {180-1-180-11}, DOI = {10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66}, keywords = {magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), methods: analytical, methods: statistical, solarterrestrial relations, solar wind, Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)}, journal = {The Astrophysical journal}, doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66}, volume = {854}, number = {2}, issn = {0004-637X}, title = {The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation}, keyword = {magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), methods: analytical, methods: statistical, solarterrestrial relations, solar wind, Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus


Uključenost u ostale bibliografske baze podataka:


  • NASA-ADS


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