engleski

Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: empirical evidence for selected Central and Eastern European economies

This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on output and prices in Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Slovenia. The empirical effects of the oil price shocks are estimated using the Vector autoregression analysis. The results suggest that in all of these countries the effects of oil price shocks on output appear to be significant only sporadically. The relatively short lived significant effects of oil shocks on prices are found in Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. In Czech Republic, Estonia and Lithuania the effects appear to be statistically insignificant. This evidence of the weak impact of oil price shocks is in accordance with the recent empirical literature which suggests that the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in developed countries became much weaker with time.

oil shocks ; output ; prices ; vector auto regression

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