engleski

Spectral analysis of macroeconomic series for Croatia

Macroeconomic data/indicators are the basis for any serious assessment of the economic situation in a country. After gaining independence, Croatia developed in a highly open economy that liberalized fast, thus becoming a small-open-import dependent and indebted country with strong trade imbalances. In addition, large seasonal influences and numerous external and internal shocks, led to a problem of data consistency and reliability. Nowadays we find many advanced tools for data analysis, and one of them is the spectral analysis. The goal of the spectral analysis is to create a decomposition of the original series to the large number of small independent components such as slow fluctuating trend, oscillator components, and structural noise. The advantage of spectral analysis is that it allows the identification and characterization of the dominant trends and cycles as well as seasonal and oscillatory components. In this paper, we will use spectral analysis to study the most important macroeconomic variables for Croatia. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to use elements of spectral analysis to get more accurate and reliable macroeconomic series that could be useful in evaluation and/or forecasting of future economic developments.

advanced time series analysis, spectral analysis, cycles, Croatia

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