engleski

Financial portfolio approach in modelling international tourism demand in Croatia

Tourism is very important generator of economic development in the Republic of Croatia. Tourism in Croatia is mainly focused on foreigners from within the EU. Because of dynamic and very competitive tourist market, today it is very hard to forecast tourism demand. According to previous research, tourism demand can vary over time between tourists of different nationalities. Stability of inbound tourist demand makes very important condition for tourism development. The objective of this study will be to construct optimal mixature of tourists that will help tourism policy-makers to optimize or maximize tourist arrivals at certain level of risk. We will analyse inbound tourist arrivals in Croatia. Main idea of this research is to apply financial portfolio theory on Croatian tourism demand. Portfolio theory will be used to construct optimal mixature of inbound tourists, when there is an infinite number of possibilities. Several portfolio combinations will be calculated with different return/risk options to present on which foreign tourists Croatia must be oriented. The scientific contribution of this research will be in the portfolio analysis which provide tourism policy- makers to choose ideal solution considering the return and risk. Return will be presented by the tourism demand and risk will be presented by the instability of the tourism demand.

Croatian tourism, financial portfolio theory, tourist demand, optimal market mix, inbound tourists

nije evidentirano