Pretražite po imenu i prezimenu autora, mentora, urednika, prevoditelja

Napredna pretraga

Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 919182

The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis


Šergo, Zdravko; Gržinić, Jasmina; Sučić Čevra, Mirela
The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis // Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 35 (2017), 2; 427-458 doi:10.18045/zbefri.2017.2.427 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


Naslov
The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis

Autori
Šergo, Zdravko ; Gržinić, Jasmina ; Sučić Čevra, Mirela

Izvornik
Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci (1330-6316) 35 (2017), 2; 427-458

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
recesija ; trajanje ; rizik ; turizam ; analiza višestruke opstojnosti ; GLLM
(recession ; duration ; risk ; tourism ; multilevel survival analysis ; GLLM)

Sažetak
Does a country with a heavy dependence on a tourism economy have a tendency to succumb to more risk in a recession? With the shift from manufacturing-based economies in the developing world toward service-based industries, including tourism, a reliance on the tourism industry may erode economic stability in tourism-based countries, making them more prone to fall into a recession due to higher risks. In this paper, we wish to emphasise the positive impact of tourism specialisation indices in the international economy on the probability occurrence of a so-called Great Recession. This article uses an multilevel survival analysis and a generalised linear mixed-effect (GLMM) structure modelling to investigate the impact of tourism development on the probability of recession frequency (risk in terms of months of duration and severity), by using data collected from 2007 to 2013 from 71 countries around the world, to see if recession frequency is positively correlated with the various indicators of tourism development. Two GLMM were fit to these data: logistic regression and count regression with a Poisson distribution. Results for both regressions show considerable evidence that the ratio between the number of overnight stays and the resident population and travel services as an percentage of commercial service exports positively impacts the probability for a country (from our sample) to experience a recession event and can make recession worst in terms of severity, measured in months.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Fakultet ekonomije i turizma "Dr. Mijo Mirković", Pula,
Institut za poljoprivredu i turizam, Poreč

Profili:

Avatar Url Mirela Sučić (autor)

Avatar Url Jasmina Gržinić (autor)

Avatar Url Zdravko Šergo (autor)

Citiraj ovu publikaciju

Šergo, Zdravko; Gržinić, Jasmina; Sučić Čevra, Mirela
The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis // Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 35 (2017), 2; 427-458 doi:10.18045/zbefri.2017.2.427 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
Šergo, Z., Gržinić, J. & Sučić Čevra, M. (2017) The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis. Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 35 (2), 427-458 doi:10.18045/zbefri.2017.2.427.
@article{article, year = {2017}, pages = {427-458}, DOI = {10.18045/zbefri.2017.2.427}, keywords = {recession, duration, risk, tourism, multilevel survival analysis, GLLM}, journal = {Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci}, doi = {10.18045/zbefri.2017.2.427}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, issn = {1330-6316}, title = {The tourism and travel industry and its effect on the great recession: a multilevel survival analysis}, keyword = {recession, duration, risk, tourism, multilevel survival analysis, GLLM} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
  • Scopus


Uključenost u ostale bibliografske baze podataka:


  • CAB Abstracts
  • EconLit
  • IBSS - The International Bibliography of the Social Sciences
  • JE
  • DOAJ
  • ProQuest
  • Social Scisearch
  • SSCI
  • SOCIndex


Citati