engleski

Evolucija modela učenja i predviđanja u ekonomskoj literaturi: adaptivna vs. racionalna očekivanja

The ability to accurately predict future events still represents one of the biggest challenges of economic modeling. Modern economic theory, by form of design, distinguishes two types of hypotheses on the formation of expectations: adaptible and rational. The main methodological problem encountered by academics during research is the intangible nature of expectations. In this paper the authors provide a historical overview of the development of the concept of expectations, from naïve, to adaptable, and then to rational, contrasting their advantages and shortcomings. The authors will also present two models of anticipating the future, with a special emphasis on information processing and its influence on decision-making which will not lead to systematic aberrations from the actual situation.

rational expectations ; adaptible expectations ; decision-making ; modeling

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