engleski

What Remains after Brexit? An Analysis of the Political and Economic Developments

The British referendum to opt for exiting the European Union (EU) has left both the United Kingdom (UK), as well as the rest of the EU, with deep questions regarding the future of the integration and their future economic development. While the EU member-states present a united front in regards to the leave process, there are deeply rooted divisions on all other relevant policy questions. The issues of migration, foreign policy and level of cohesion within the EU itself are all questions where there is little or no consensus. This paper examines the value of stock indexes, the value of the British currency and other short- term indexes to access the impact of BREXIT on their economy. The empirical analysis consists of unit breakpoint tests, while the qualitative analysis focuses on the short-term economic aspects, as well as the potential ways to ensure long-term and strategic changes which are necessary to ensuring the future of the EU. This paper concludes that, from an economic standpoint, there is no empiric evidence that would suggest that there is a statistically significant positive impact of BREXIT on the economy of the UK. It further concludes that both the UK and the EU need to address a deep political divide and find a way to coexist in the aftermath of BREXIT.

the United Kingdom (the UK), the European Union (the EU), Brexit, stock market indexes, Chow’s structural breakpoint test, economic and political implications, immigration

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