A critical re-examination of the Carlson-Parkin method (CROSBI ID 245938)
Prilog u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Lolić, Ivana ; Sorić, Petar
engleski
A critical re-examination of the Carlson-Parkin method
The euro area has been experiencing a long period of inflation well below the targeted 2%. This has once again brought the problem of quantifying inflation expectations into the scientific focus. Within the framework of the Carlson-Parkin (CP) method, previous research has mostly focused on altering the probability distributions. Analyzing as much as 2688 versions of the CP method, we prove that the distribution choice provides only minor improvements in the forecasting accuracy. On the other hand, the method assumptions (unbiased expectations and the number of survey response categories) play the pivotal role. We make an attempt to provide an assumptions-free quantification method by recognizing the fact that agents perceive “moderate” inflation through the inflation targeting policy.
Consumer Surveys ; Carlson-Parkin method ; inflation expectations
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Podaci o izdanju
25 (19)
2018.
1360-1363
objavljeno
1350-4851
1466-4291
10.1080/13504851.2017.1420880 Journal: Applied Economics Letters