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Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport (CROSBI ID 656670)

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Jurković, Jadran ; Zoldoš, Marko ; Kos, Igor Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport. 2017. str. 1-1

Podaci o odgovornosti

Jurković, Jadran ; Zoldoš, Marko ; Kos, Igor

engleski

Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport Results of the Fog Forecast Verification in TAF Forecasts for Zagreb Airport

Forecasting of fog events is always challenging. Conditions that lead to fog are well known but uncertainties in operational models or statistical methods are still quite large. In contrast, the accurate forecast of fog is highly desirable especially for aviation. Fog events at airports can cause delays or cancellation of flights depending on the technical equipment of the airport and airplane. Therefore Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) is important in decision making during the flight planning process. The TAF Verification procedures are still not standardized but one of the leading approaches is proposed by Mahringer (2008). It is based on verifying the best and worst conditions for each hour, between observed and forecast states. The data used for the verification is visibility from TAF and METAR reports during the period 2009-2016 for Zagreb airport. They contain hourly values of short-range forecasts (24 hours), and observed reports every half- hour. Zoldoš and Jurković (2016) showed that at Zagreb airport fog is more frequent in the period between September and February and there are approximately 60 fog events per year. However, the occurrence of fog is about 8% in terms of hours yearly, hence fog can be regarded as a rare event. When verifying visibility, a multi categorical contingency table with class limits arising from criteria for groups of changes in a TAF forecast is calculated. Therefore, for comparing results Juras and Pasarić (2006) suggested the diagram with bias and tetrachoric (or polychoric) correlation coefficient (TCC). The results of verification confirm that forecasting of fog events are challenging. Forecasted worst conditions (minimum forecasted visibility in hours) in TAFs are better correlated with an observed, in regard to to the best ones. During a year, results are better in fog season. Looking just at minimum forecasted visibility (even with lower probability) higher false alarm is observed during spring and summer. During the day, hours with forecasted fog follow observed ones (climatology). It is clear that onset of the fog is more challenging to forecast compared to the dissipation. Verification indices according to the lead time are expected with highly decrease of accuracy in first hours. Detailed results of this verification were presented to the forecasters and adopted to customers through a regular audit session, which is part of the quality management system.

verification, fog, forecast, airport

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Podaci o prilogu

1-1.

2017.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

Podaci o skupu

European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology

predavanje

04.09.2017-08.09.2017

Dublin, Irska

Povezanost rada

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