engleski

Population projections of Middle and South Adriatic islands

During the 20th century Croatian islands have suffered significant demographic losses. The primary force behind those losses was emigration, especially swift and large scale emigration towards overseas countries and later to coastal cities. In the last few decades emigration pace was steady, following the economic migration pattern of the rest of Croatia. Past trends in fertility and mortality allow us to predict certain demographic changes that will affect Middle and South Adriatic islands in the future. In this paper we project population dynamics with various fertility and migration scenarios and with respect to island’s unique population characteristics. Population ageing will remain the key demographic process but various migration scenarios will actively impact its strength. Also, low fertility trends moved some local authorities to introduce pro-birth measures that need further monitoring and validation of their positive impact.

population projections, Middle and South Adriatic, Croatian islands, emigration

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