engleski

Unemployment trends and characteristics of unemployed people on the Croatian islands in the period 2004 – 2015

Unemployment is a phenomenon that is present in the entire Croatian society and this paper is focused on the analysis of the characteristics of this phenomenon on the Croatian islands. Islands may be considered as separate systems that function in accordance with the circumstances and specifics of the environment in which they are located, but also as a systems that are in the dynamic interaction with the wider surroundings. Two listed characteristics affect the way of life on the islands, but also on the image of unemployment. The aim of this paper is to present certain patterns and explain unemployment on the islands by means of a range of internal and external influences and different characteristics that affect the described phenomenon, and some of them are socio- demographic characteristics of the islanders, economic activities specific to the islands and the impact of the success of the tourist season on the total number of unemployed. Also, the goal is to present the trends and potential projections about the number of unemployed in the period to come. In order to achieve stated, the range of statistical methods was used in the analysis on the data collected on a sample of 18 island, a group of islands or municipalities. To test the basic assumptions about the strength and direction of the correlations between the different groups of unemployed and characteristics that affect the overall picture of unemployment, different forms of correlation analysis were used. In addition to that, the likelihood of association between changes in unemployment and some general demographic changes were analysed. Using regression analysis and t-test the strength and direction of the impact of certain subgroups of the unemployed on overall unemployment was described. In the end, the different polynomial functions and curve estimation methods were used to make the projections about the number of unemployed in the analyzed period and in period to come.

Croatian islands ; unemployment ; characteristics of the unemployed ; trends in unemployment ; seasonal work ; economy

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