engleski

Quo Vadis Rural Croatia: Scenarios for Future Development of the Croatian Countryside

The research presents preliminary results of the CRORURIS scenario building exercise for future development of rural Croatia. The main motivation for the research was the predominantly negative recent trends facing the Croatian countryside. Although not a single or homogenous entity, rural Croatia is unfortunately, in great part, synonymous with other problem areas possessing negative demographic, economic, and social features. More than one-third of Croatian territory is home to less than 7% of the (mostly elderly) population. This fact alone poses a serious threat to development and weakens the state’s spatial and functional integration. Croatia’s recent integration into the EU changes the geopolitical, economic and social context, and brings in wider regional and global forces for consideration in planning and development. Rural demographic patterns (especially out- migration of rural youth), macroeconomic and agricultural market trends (ever decreasing agricultural population and number of farms, an increase in individual farm size, land abandonment, etc.), and environmental concerns and regulations (pressures and land use changes) are among the most important factors recognized in international studies that should be closely examined in relation to the endogenous context. Recently, there have been numerous scenario-based approaches to studying future trends and driving forces for rural Europe, both in academic and political discourse, on national and EU levels (e.g. SCENAR 2020, EURURALIS, ESPON). However, to our knowledge, no scenario-based research on rural areas in Croatia has been conducted and only few partial impact analyses have been conducted in recent Croatian agricultural policy By combining factor analysis, cluster analysis and the Delphi method, i.e. quantitative and qualitative tools, the goal of the research was to build future development scenarios for rural Croatia through 2031 and study their implications for regional and rural development. Based on results of the factor analysis, 15 key variables influencing the development of rural areas were identified, and then used to conduct a cluster analysis. Six different types of rural areas in Croatia were recognized. Based on this, a panel of scientists and experts considered possible future developments of each variable through two rounds of questionnaires. Monte Carlo simulation was then used, resulting in the most likely new types of rural areas (clusters) in the year 2031. Furthermore, the experts' responses were qualitatively analysed and interpreted to form the basis for explorative scenarios. Via scenario method it was possible to encompass a wide analytical area, the complex set of important factors that influenced development characteristics, and possible future influences. Scenarios pointed to links among various aspects of regional development, and the implications stemming from them are important both for spatial planning and the wider rural development context.

Rural areas ; Scenarios ; Future development ; Croatia

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