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THE PENSION INSURANCE SYSTEM IN CROATIA – SCENARIO OF THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

The pension insurance system and its continued development depend, significantly, on the economic and demographic indicators of each country. The first forms of pension insurance in Croatia were based on the so-called: old-age insurance, while the formal forms were developed in the 19th century. The crisis of the pension system, which was present at the end of the period of socialism, deepened even after Croatian independence. Therefore, at the end of the nineties began the reform of pension insurance, which was completed in 2002. The reform of the pension system in Croatia was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, which began in 1999, the goal was to streamline the existing pension system of intergenerational solidarity and to make it sustainable. After the first phase, in 2002 the second phase conducted reform of the pension insurance, which designed the second and the third pillar and, also, established capitalized pension savings. In accordance with the reforms, today's pension system of our country is based on a mixed financing model, in which instead of one, there is a system with multiple pension pillars. But despite the reforms, this system, even today has some difficulties that hinder the efficient functioning. Since the future trends in the pension system are largely determined by demographic and economic indicators as well as regulations governing the pension system, the goal of this paper is to present a scenario of pension insurance development in Croatia from 2016 to 2060, made on the basis of available development projections of demographic, administrative and economic indicators. Within the framework of scenarios, the authors analyze the movement of certain variables of pension insurance which are important for the sustainability of the whole system. By observing the individual strengths and weaknesses in the development of pension insurance on the basis of the created scenarios, the authors offer suggestions for the implementation of additional measures and activities within the system in order to improve the economic and social effects of the pension system and facilitate its long- term sustainability. Thereby using a set of scientific research methods (methods of analysis, comparison, induction, deduction, description and classification, etc.) as well as certain statistical and mathematical methods that are used for the analysis of certain variables.

pension system, Croatia, the scenario of the future development, demographic and economic indicators, sustainability

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