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Cyclical Characteristics of the Industrial Production in Croatia


Tomić, Daniel; Stjepanović, Saša
Cyclical Characteristics of the Industrial Production in Croatia // Responsible Organization / Arsanijević, O. ; Ferjan, M. ; Podbregar, I. ; Šprajc, P ; Trivan, D. ; Ziegler, Y. (ur.).
Maribor: University of Maribor Press, 2017. str. 1173-1188 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)


Naslov
Cyclical Characteristics of the Industrial Production in Croatia

Autori
Tomić, Daniel ; Stjepanović, Saša

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Responsible Organization / Arsanijević, O. ; Ferjan, M. ; Podbregar, I. ; Šprajc, P ; Trivan, D. ; Ziegler, Y. - Maribor : University of Maribor Press, 2017, 1173-1188

ISBN
978-961-286-020-2

Skup
36th International Conference on Organizational Science Development: Responsible Organization

Mjesto i datum
Portorož, Slovenia, 22.-24.03.2017

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Main industrial groupings, short-run analysis, business cycle, HP filter, Granger-causality, Croatia

Sažetak
Industrial production is considered as one of the most important variable indicating the expansion or compression of economic activity in a country. It is not only recognized as the most important and widely analyzed high- frequency indicator, but it is also a crucial variable for forecasting the short-run evolution of national output. Indeed, it can provide ground for decision-making bodies with early signals of turning points and/or long- term trend fluctuations. Industrial production plays a very important role in Croatian economic growth perspective too as this indicator often reflects particular national output developments. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate cyclical characteristics of industrial production and its main industrial groupings in Croatia as to detect their mutual dependency and extract reliable information about their co- movements. By using the HP filter for extracting cyclical features and analyzing leads/lags disproportions inside a distinct time domain, this study also uses pairwise Granger causality test to emphasize the importance of their interconnection within a business cycle analysis. Quarterly data are collected from the Croatian National Bank database ranging from 1998 to 2016, short-term dynamics being the cornerstone of the analysis. Results reveal higher sensitivity of so-called cyclical industries suggesting their limited implications in short-run assessments and economic policy projections.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



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Ustanove
Sveučilište Jurja Dobrile u Puli