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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 838866

Modelling and Forecasting Unemployment Non- linear Dynamics Using Spectral Analysis


Škare, Marinko; Buterin, Vesna
Modelling and Forecasting Unemployment Non- linear Dynamics Using Spectral Analysis // Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics,, 26 (2015), 4; 373-383 doi:10.5755/j01.ee.26.4.8718 (podatak o recenziji nije dostupan, izvorni znanstveni rad, znanstveni)


Naslov
Modelling and Forecasting Unemployment Non- linear Dynamics Using Spectral Analysis

Autori
Škare, Marinko ; Buterin, Vesna

Izvornik
Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, (1392-2785) 26 (2015), 4; 373-383

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, izvorni znanstveni rad, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis ; Unemployment ; Non-Linear ; Persistence ; Causality ; Croatian Disease ; Partial Hysteresis ; Spectral Methods.

Sažetak
Changes in the unemployment in Croatia are largely permanent. However, transitory movements account for most of the unemployment dynamics after 2008. Unemployment series is non-stationary but mean-reversing, non-linear with structural breaks and significant white and red-noise in the data. This paper estimates Multivariate singular spectrum model (MSSA) to explain overall fluctuations in unemployment registered during 1998–2013. Unemployment behaviour in Croatia shows evidence of cyclo- stationarity caused by seasonal employment effects. We use 88 time series (variable) to explain observed fluctuations with our MSSA model explaining 76 % of the total unemployment variance comprehensively. Evidence of this study demonstrates that unemployment phenomena should be modelled by using a non-linear model with multivariate singular spectrum models giving more robust and empirically valid results in relation to standard modelling techniques. A 5–6 years limit cycle for unemployment is isolated dominating unemployment behaviour in Croatia over the last two decades.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Ekonomski fakultet, Rijeka,
Fakultet ekonomije i turizma "Dr. Mijo Mirković", Pula

Časopis indeksira:


  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus


Uključenost u ostale bibliografske baze podataka:


  • IBSS - The International Bibliography of the Social Sciences
  • SSCI – Social Sciences Citation Index
  • Social Scisearch
  • Journal Citation Reports
  • Social Sciences Edition
  • IBSS
  • International Bibliography of the Social Sciences
  • EBSCO
  • Business Source Complete
  • Current Abstracts


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