engleski

Assessing Terrorist Threats for Energy Infrastructure by Combining Historical Data and Expert Judgements

This paper presents the results of the research which consisted of two parts. In the first part the statistical analysis of the terrorist attacks towards energy systems was performed. The input data were derived from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Within the analysis relative contributions of the attacks on energy systems to the total number of attacks were determined. Also, it was examined how those contributions are influenced by various factors related to the characteristics of the target, terrorist group and the environment in which the group operates.

threat assessment; terrorism; energy infrastructure; protection; Bayesian networks

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