engleski

Anthropogenic drivers of fire occurence in the Eastern Adriatic

Fires are a global issue whose consequences on soil degradation, human population and vegetation are increasing in importance. The largest number of fires in the world occurs on forest and agricultural vegetation with African savannas, North American coniferous forest and the Mediterranean being the areas with the highest fire-risk in the world.Forest fires are one of the key factors of forest degradation in the world.The reserch has demonstrated that the mediterranean area is characterized by an increase in both forest fire occurence and in burnt area surface. Warm and dry climate, easily flammable vegetation rich in resin, permeable soil and characteristic socio- economic processes such as agriculture abandonment and decrease in cattle herding are some of the key drivers of forest fire occurence in the Mediterranean.While the cause of the natural fires are usually lightning or volcanic eruptions, between 95% and 99% of all recorded fires in the world are actually anthopogenic in origin. This research deals with the anthropogenic causes of fires in the area of Dalmatia, Croatia. Two hundred and seventy forest fires recorded in 2013 have been analyzed, encipassing 98% of the total burnt area during the selected year. The relationship betwen fire occurence and selected socio- economic explanatory variables was analyzed by way of multiple regression. The variables were available for the 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses and other national databases. The identification of explanatory variables was based on literature and expert knowledge of the area. It included population ageing, educational structure, change of population density, agricultural data and data on tourist arrivals. The results have demonstrated that littoralization is one of the key drivers of fire occurence with areas characterized with population increase (mostly coastline) recording an increase in fire occurence. The results aslo demonstrate the importance socio- economic restructuring, mainly agricultural abandonment with complex causes dating back to the socialist period of the former Yogoslavia. Agricultural abandonment connected to tourism development, industrialization and urbanization has opened vast tracts of land to be overgrown with highly flammable shrubs. Such processes vary over space and time and their study is a potentially powerful tool in fire reduction strategies.

forest; wildfire; drivers; OLS model; Eastern Adriatic; Croatia; Mediterranean

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