engleski

Determinants of confidence judgments in syllogistic reasoning

According to the self-consistency model of subjective confidence (Koriat, 2012), confidence judgments are related to the consensuality of the answer (the proportion of participants who choose the answer) rather than to its accuracy. In a domain of syllogistic reasoning, previous studies (Prowse Turner & Thompson, 2009 ; Shynkaruk & Thompson, 2006) found that reasoning accuracy and confidence were generally not correlated, and that confidence and accuracy were mediated by different variables. The aim of this study was to analyze differences in confidence judgments as a function of response accuracy and response consensuality. Participants were given booklets with syllogistic problems. They were instructed to produce conclusions, and after each task they were asked to make confidence judgments. All logically possible pairs of premises regarding mood of premises and syllogism figure were included. The obtained results strongly supported the predictions of the self-consistency model. For consensually correct syllogisms confidence was higher for correct than for incorrect answers, but for consensually incorrect syllogisms confidence was higher for incorrect than for correct answers. While item consensuality correlated positively with confidence, the correlation between item accuracy and confidence was not significant. However, for items with a consensually correct response, correlation between confidence and accuracy was positive, but for items with a consensually incorrect response correlation between confidence and accuracy was negative. The evidence obtained in this study supports the conclusion that similar patterns of relationships between confidence and accuracy established for different types of tasks (Koriat, 2012) also hold in the domain of reasoning. Confidence judgments do not monitor the actual reasoning performance, but they rely on different types of cues, which are also related to the consensuality of conclusions.

syllogistic reasoning ; metareasoning ; confidence ; consensuality principle

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