Applying survival analysis to model time to score in football – the case of the UEFA European Championship 2016 (CROSBI ID 639583)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa
Podaci o odgovornosti
Munđar, Dušan ; Šimić, Diana
engleski
Applying survival analysis to model time to score in football – the case of the UEFA European Championship 2016
Operational research (OR), considered as a branch of mathematics with primary focus on solving business problems, can be applied in many other areas. OR methods are used in sports management for more than fifty years. On the other hand, it is difficult to determine where OR ends and another discipline, for example statistics, begins. Generally, it’s considered that operational research has a relation to decision-making. Analysis in our paper is intended to be used as a decision making tool. We are interested in the dynamics of the goal scoring rate during the match. Time between scores is modeled using Cox semiparametric regression on game characteristics (where match breaks, halftime and end of game cause censoring). Data on European Football Championships EURO 2012 and EURO 2016 are used in the paper. If number of goals in a match was a realization of a Poisson process with a fixed goal scoring rate, then time to score would be exponentially distributed. We compare Cox semiparametric model where the goal rate changes during the game with the model of exponential distribution with a fixed goal rate. Cox regression enables assessment of association between game characteristics (e.g. score difference or time to end) and risk of scoring. Results of the analysis can be used as a decision making tool for in-game changes in tactics (for example player substitution).
Cox model ; Football ; Goals ; In-game tactics ; Survival analysis ; Sports analytics
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Podaci o prilogu
137-137.
2016.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Book of Abstracts - 16th International Conference on Operational Research - KOI 2016
Scitovski, R ; Zekić-Sušac, M.
Osijek: Hrvatsko društvo za operacijska istraživanja (CRORS)
1849-5141
Podaci o skupu
The 16th International Conference on Operational Research - KOI 2016
predavanje
27.09.2016-29.09.2016
Osijek, Hrvatska
Povezanost rada
Matematika, Računarstvo, Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti