engleski

Validation of the CME Arrival Time and Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP

Under the COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles), an automated space weather alert system has been developed within FP7 project. It provides an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, based on CME parameters, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration.  In this paper, we present an evaluation of the COMESEP Alert System based on a study of several geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014-2015. Based on the alerts released by the COMESEP tool, the validation of the forecast tool is done for each geo-effective event. The performance of the forecast tools is evaluated by comparing the actual arrival time of the CMEs estimated from measurements by the in-situ spacecraft  with that predicted by the COMESEP.  A comparison of the geomagnetic activity forecast with the actual geomagnetic storm occurrence has also been made in an attempt to test the tools for predicting geomagnetic activity. In addition, the COMESEP alerts have also been compared with the alerts of other existing space weather forecasting tools operated by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) of the GSFC. The results are important and will be used to improve the algorithms and tools implemented for  predicting  the arrival time of CMEs and their geomagnetic impact.

coronal mass ejections ; spaceweather forecast

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