engleski

The challenges of estimating monthly national accounts data in Croatia

This paper is a pioneer attempt of estimating monthly GDP data in Croatia. More specifically, the authors employ six different temporal disaggregation methods using five Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) composite indicators as regressors. The obtained results seem to confirm that the Fernandez and Litterman methods are superior to the Chow and Lin approach. Not less important, the results demonstrate that BCS represent a valuable source of macroeconomic information. The obtained monthly version of GDP cyclically follows its quarterly counterpart. This study unveils some new possibilities of regularly publishing monthly national accounts data in Croatia. This would bring substantial methodological modernisation to the Croatian official statistics, as well as it would largely help the researchers to more easily and more accurately date the business cycle peaks and troughs. The final positive effect for economic professionals and the interested public would be undisputable.

business and consumer surveys; national accounts; temporal disaggregation

Sažetak rada objavljen je u zborniku sažetaka: Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06.05.2016., Conference topic: "New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union", Vol.1, No.1., IISN 1849-9864, p. 14. Objavljivanje rada podržano je od strane Hrvatske zaklade za znanost, u sklopu istraživačkog projekta IP-2013-11-3858. Autori rada primili su nagradu za najbolji rad u sekciji "Special Session for Challenges of Official Statistics".