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Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance


Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Yoh Iwasa
Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance // PLoS One, 10 (2015), 5; 1-16 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0126447 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


Naslov
Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance

Autori
Lee, Joung-Hun ; Jusup, Marko ; Podobnik, Boris ; Yoh Iwasa

Izvornik
PLoS One (1932-6203) 10 (2015), 5; 1-16

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Microfinance ; networks ; phase transition

Sažetak
By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox frame- work for mapping microfinance credit risk—a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve be- yond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of mea- surable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We il- lustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we dis- cuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Građevinski fakultet, Rijeka,
Zagrebačka škola ekonomije i managementa, Zagreb

Časopis indeksira:


  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus
  • MEDLINE


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