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Winter Saeculum: VOL III

In already established series, Article offers Authors thoughts on evolution of selected developments in current Winter Saeculum market | business cycle. Back in 2008 Authors offered expectations on key developments in economy and markets based on fundamental framework of Saeculum studies. Five years later, Authors gave assessment of empirical findings relative to prior expectations. In a period that followed market recorded high deviations of isolated variables from history averages and high volatility compounded by grand monetary and macroeconomic experiments form policy makers. As a result, Authors decided to re- evaluate current point in time. Article’s goal is to provide alternative approach for individual thinking on causes and effects that have great impact both individually and on aggregate, rather than offer pure expectations on possible outcomes. In a process of identifying major processes in economy and markets, intention was to point at leading variables that have a prevailing impact on key risks in both individual and institutional risk management and decision making process.

Winter Saeculum; asset allocation; determinants of rising and declining Saeculums; Croatia; developed markets

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