engleski

Summer temperature extremes over Europe obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models

European summer temperature extremes from simulations of six EURO-CORDEX regional climate models are analysed for the 20-year period, 1989-2008. The models were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis at 50 and 12.5-km horizontal resolutions. Three categories of extreme temperature indices - absolute, percentile and duration - are derived from daily data. The results are compared with extreme temperature indices calculated from the gridded daily E-OBS data over Europe and for Croatia, where the indices are derived from daily observations at 20 Croatian meteorological stations. The ensemble spread is large, but the biases at 12.5-km simulations are smaller than at 50 km. When compared with validation data, model simulated temperatures and their percentiles are mostly overestimated over southern Europe and underestimated over northern Europe. Over Croatia, spatial distribution of indices at 12.5 km is closer to observed distribution than at the 50-km resolution.

summer temperature extremes; EURO-CORDEX; regional climate models; Croatia

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