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CORDEX regional climate models: evaluation of mean temperature and precipitation over the PRUDENCE regions and Croatia (CROSBI ID 636550)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija

Stilinović, Tomislav ; Güttler, Ivan ; Srnec, Lidija ; Branković, Čedomir CORDEX regional climate models: evaluation of mean temperature and precipitation over the PRUDENCE regions and Croatia // The International Conference on Regional Climate CORDEX 2016 - Abstract book. 2016

Podaci o odgovornosti

Stilinović, Tomislav ; Güttler, Ivan ; Srnec, Lidija ; Branković, Čedomir

engleski

CORDEX regional climate models: evaluation of mean temperature and precipitation over the PRUDENCE regions and Croatia

In this study, a set of experiments the EURO-CORDEX simulations are evaluated over the PRUDENCE regions (Jacob et al. 2007, Clim. Change) and over a region that includes Croatia and large parts of the neighbouring countries. Our set of experiments include 6 regional climate models (RCMs) forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis and integrated at the 12.5-km and 50-km horizontal resolutions and 11 (14) RCMs at the 12.5-km (50-km) resolution forced by CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The performance of the RCMs is evaluated for monthly, seasonal and annual land-point averages of near-surface temperature and total precipitation. Special focus is given to the RegCM4 simulations performed at Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ-RegCM4). As a reference, we use the E-OBSv11 dataset which includes near-surface temperature and total precipitation at a regular 0.25° x 0.25° grid. For each simulation over the historic period 1971-2000 (1989-2008 when RCMs were forced by ERA-Interim) commonly used evaluation metrics over the selected subregions are applied. They include: (1) spatially-averaged differences between RCMs and observations, (2) the spatial 95th percentiles of simulated and observed temperature and precipitation, (3) spatial correlation coefficients between models and observations, (4) the ratio of spatial standard deviations between simulated and observed fields, and (5) the Spearman rank correlations between simulated and observed time-series of spatially-averaged temperature and precipitation. The results highlight that, in most simulations, the RCMs are able to capture the (observed) spatial variability of the European temperature climate. This is indicated by high spatial correlations with values larger than 0.9 for most subregions. As commonly found in other studies, the total precipitation in RCM simulations is often overestimated and spatial correlations are noticeably lower than for temperature. The results of this study would enable to decide with confidence which combinations of RCMs and GCMs could be used to investigate the impacts of climate change scenarios over Croatia.

evaluations regional climate models; horizontal resolutions; variability

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Podaci o prilogu

2016.

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objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

The International Conference on Regional Climate CORDEX 2016 - Abstract book

Podaci o skupu

ICRC-CORDEX 2016

poster

17.05.2016-20.05.2016

Stockholm, Švedska

Povezanost rada

Geologija