engleski

Near-surface wind patterns obtained by regional climate simulations for south-eastern Europe

This study examines simulated and observed near-surface wind speed from multiple sources. Observations include numerous land-based station data from the 1996-2008 period and QuikSCAT data from 2000-2008 period over the Adriatic. Observed data have been compared against the daily output from a suite of 10 CORDEX RCM simulations (seven from EURO-CORDEX: CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17, DMI-HIRHAM5, IPSL-INERIS-WRF331F, KNMI- RACMO22E, SMHI-RCA4, CNRM-ALADIN5.3 DHMZ-RegCM4.2, and 3 from MED- CORDEX: CNRM-ALADIN5.2, ICTP-RegCM4.3, UCLM-PROMES), where all simulations are forced by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Each ensemble member was run at two resolutions ; 12.5 km and 50 km. Furthermore, for the proper comparison between 12.5 km and 50 km resolution simulations, the upscaling of the 12.5 km model resolution is performed. RCMs with fine grid spacing have improved characteristics of regional topography, while at the same time spatial patterns of surface wind are strongly affected by the complex topography. The flows over the Adriatic, (i.e. bora and sirocco along the Adriatic coast) differ from wind characteristics inland where the Danube river splits Pannonian Basin into two parts surrounded by the Alps in the northwest, the Dinaric Alps in the southwest and by the Carpathians in northeast. Results from the same RCM but with different grid spacing reveal strong dependence of wind characteristics on location. When comparing RCMs and observations, we discuss statistical approaches (e.g. Brier skill score and principal component analysis). Furthermore, RCMs are explored in terms of skill in reproducing specific wind regimes where sometimes large spread in the RCM ensemble has been found.

wind climatology; climate models; CORDEX

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